VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices slipped slightly on March 16 as the global market prepared to reopen for the new trading week. Robusta futures on ICE London are expected to remain volatile, with prices likely fluctuating between $3,420 and $3,520 per ton amid mixed supply signals and technical trading.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices fell 200 dong/kg to 89,600 - 90,600 dong/kg on March 16.
> ICE London May 2026 robusta closed at $3,455 per ton last Friday.
> Domestic prices remain about 400 dong/kg below London futures.
> Improving global supply outlook, rising inventories, and a stronger US dollar are pressuring prices.
> Robusta futures are expected to trade between $3,420 and $3,520 per ton in the March 16 session.
Vietnam coffee prices dip slightly as global market prepares to reopen
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam edged down by about 200 dong per kilogram on Monday (March 16), trading in the range of 89,600 - 90,600 dong/kg.
Major global coffee exchanges, including ICE New York for arabica and ICE London for robusta, are scheduled to open the first trading session of the week at around 3:15 - 4:00 p.m. (Vietnam time).
At the close of last Friday’s session, May 2026 robusta futures on ICE London stood at $3,455 per ton, while May 2026 arabica futures on ICE New York settled at 285.15 US cents per pound, equivalent to $6,286.47 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the May 2026 robusta contract is currently valued at about 90,800 dong/kg, based on the exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,293.50 dong.
With the domestic average price at roughly 90,400 dong/kg, Vietnam’s physical robusta prices are currently about 400 dong/kg lower than the London May 2026 futures price, equivalent to a discount of around $15.21 per ton.
Global coffee market under pressure from improved supply outlook
The global coffee market is expected to remain volatile during the March 16 trading session, following a sharp decline at the end of last week. The May 2026 robusta contract on ICE London fell to $3,455 per ton on March 13, down nearly 5% from the previous session and marking the lowest level since the contract was listed.
The main pressure on prices comes from improving global supply prospects. Several analytical institutions have raised their forecasts for Brazil’s coffee production in the upcoming season, while robusta supply from Vietnam remains abundant as exports continue to rise during the first months of the year.
In addition, projections that global coffee production for the 2026/27 season could reach a record level have reinforced cautious sentiment among traders and encouraged speculative selling by investment funds.
Rising inventories and strong US dollar add to market pressure
Increasing inventories on international exchanges and a stronger US dollar -reaching its highest level in about three and a half months - have also weighed on coffee prices.
A stronger dollar typically makes commodities priced in the currency more expensive for international buyers, weakening short-term demand in the market.
However, after a steep decline of nearly 5% in a single session, the market often sees technical buying and bargain-hunting activity from speculative funds.
Supply concerns may provide some support
Some supportive factors remain in play. Disruptions to global shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz have raised transportation, insurance, and fuel costs, increasing expenses for coffee importers and roasters worldwide.
Weather conditions in Brazil are also being closely monitored. According to Somar Meteorologia, the Minas Gerais region - the largest arabica-growing area in Brazil - received only 14.9 mm of rainfall last week, about 35% of the historical average.
Additionally, Indonesia’s coffee production is expected to decline by 15 - 20% this year due to unfavorable weather, which could limit global supply growth.
Robusta futures likely to trade in a narrow range
Amid mixed supply-and-demand signals, May 2026 robusta futures on ICE London are expected to fluctuate between $3,420 and $3,520 per ton during the March 16 session.
If selling pressure intensifies, prices could test the support zone around $3,380 - $3,400 per ton. Conversely, stronger technical buying could lift the market toward $3,520 - $3,560 per ton, where new resistance may emerge.
Overall, the short-term outlook for robusta remains sideways to slightly bearish, as expectations of ample supply from Brazil and Vietnam continue to shape investor sentiment across global coffee exchanges.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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