VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices declined by 500 - 700 VND/kg on March 2 to 94,900 - 95,600 VND/kg. Meanwhile, ICE London robusta futures are projected to trade cautiously around $3,600 per ton amid global supply pressure from Brazil and Vietnam, with limited downside supported by slower exports and firm physical demand.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell by 500 - 700 VND/kg to 94,900 - 95,600 VND/kg on March 2.
> May 2026 robusta futures on ICE London closed last week at $3,624/ton, equivalent to about 94,800 VND/kg.
> Domestic prices are trading at a premium of roughly 700 VND/kg ($26.74/ton) over London futures.
> Global supply expectations, especially from Brazil and Vietnam, continue to pressure prices.
> Robusta futures are forecast to trade within $3,580 - 3,620/ton on March 2, with a likely close near $3,600/ton.
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam fell by 500 - 700 VND/kg on Monday (March 2), bringing trading levels down to 94,900 - 95,600 VND/kg. The decline comes as global coffee markets prepare to reopen for the week, with major exchanges including ICE New York for arabica and ICE London for robusta scheduled to begin trading at approximately 4:00 p.m. (Vietnam time).
At the close of last week’s session, May 2026 robusta futures on ICE London stood at $3,624 per metric ton, while May 2026 arabica futures on ICE New York settled at 280.75 US cents per pound, equivalent to $6,189.47 per ton.
Converted at the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,175 VND, the May 2026 robusta contract is valued at approximately 94,800 VND/kg. With domestic robusta prices averaging 95,500 VND/kg, Vietnam’s physical market is trading at a premium of around 700 VND/kg, or roughly $26.74 per ton, above the London futures contract.
Looking ahead, May 2026 robusta futures on ICE London are expected to trade cautiously in the March 2 session following last week’s close at $3,624 per ton. Market sentiment remains under pressure from improving global supply prospects, particularly as Brazil enters what is anticipated to be a strong production cycle and Vietnam maintains solid output levels.
Expectations of a bumper Brazilian crop continue to reinforce forecasts of surplus supply in the 2026 - 2027 season. In addition, robust export volumes from Vietnam have added downward pressure on price levels. ICE-monitored robusta inventories have also recovered from previous lows, further dampening near-term bullish momentum.
However, downside risks may be limited by several supportive factors. Brazil’s coffee exports in the most recent month recorded a sharp year-on-year decline, suggesting that immediate supply to the international market is not yet overwhelming. Physical coffee trading in Brazil remains relatively slow, with limited selling interest at current price levels. The possibility of short covering near technical support zones could also provide temporary price stabilization.
Based on current supply-demand fundamentals and technical signals, May 2026 robusta futures are forecast to trade within a range of $3,580 - 3,620 per ton in the March 2 session, with a likely close near $3,600 per ton. Should fresh supply-side data reinforce surplus expectations, prices could retreat toward the $3,550 level. Conversely, stronger technical buying and improved market sentiment may lift prices toward the $3,630 - 3,650 range.
Overall, the robusta market appears to be entering a consolidation phase as global supply conditions improve, with short-term price action expected to remain range-bound around the $3,600 per ton level.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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