VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rebounded sharply on March 13, rising by 1,300 - 1,600 VND/kg to 93,300 - 94,100 VND/kg, following strong gains in global robusta futures on the ICE London exchange. The rally was supported by geopolitical tensions threatening global shipping routes, although expectations of ample global supply may cap further price increases.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose 1,300 - 1,600 VND/kg on March 13 to 93,300 - 94,100 VND/kg.
> ICE London May 2026 robusta futures closed at $3,625/ton, up 2.03%.
> Domestic robusta prices remain about 1,300 VND/kg ($49.45/ton) below London futures.
> Concerns over shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are supporting global coffee prices.
> Brazil’s February coffee exports declined, adding short-term supply concerns.
> However, expectations of record Brazilian production and strong Vietnamese exports could limit further price gains.
> Robusta futures may trade within $3,600 - $3,680 per ton, with $3,700 as a possible resistance level.
Vietnam coffee prices surge as robusta futures climb
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose sharply on the morning of March 13, tracking strong gains in the global market during the previous trading session.
At the close of trading on Thursday (March 12), robusta coffee futures for May 2026 delivery on the London exchange climbed to $3,625 per ton, up 2.03% (+$72/ton) from the previous session. Other nearby contracts also recorded notable gains. The March 2026 contract increased 1.87% (+$68/ton) to $3,707 per ton, while the July 2026 contract rose 1.76% (+$61/ton) to $3,527 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the May 2026 robusta contract is currently equivalent to about 95,300 VND/kg, based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,290 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices on the morning of March 13 increased by 1,300 - 1,600 VND/kg, reaching 93,300 - 94,100 VND/kg.
With the average domestic price at 94,000 VND/kg, Vietnamese robusta is currently trading around 1,300 VND/kg lower than the May 2026 futures price on the London exchange, equivalent to about $49.45 per ton below the futures benchmark.
Shipping disruption concerns support coffee market
The global coffee market is expected to maintain a positive tone in the March 13 trading session after both London and New York coffee futures posted strong gains in the previous session.
The main driver behind the rally is concern over potential disruptions to global shipping routes as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate. The strategic Strait of Hormuz faces the risk of disruption, which has pushed global shipping, fuel, and marine insurance costs significantly higher.
Rising logistics costs could increase expenses for coffee importers and roasters, prompting additional hedging activity in the futures market and providing short-term support for coffee prices.
Falling Brazilian exports provide additional support
Coffee prices have also received support from declining export volumes in Brazil.
According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafe), Brazil’s green coffee exports in February fell sharply compared with the same period last year, raising concerns about short-term supply availability in the global market.
Abundant supply outlook may limit price gains
Despite the recent rally, upside momentum may be capped by expectations of ample global supply.
Several analysts project that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop could reach record levels, while global coffee production is also forecast to increase in the upcoming season.
In addition, robusta supply from Vietnam - the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee - remains strong. Official statistics show that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the early months of the year increased significantly compared with the same period last year, adding more supply to the global market.
Meanwhile, certified coffee inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) remain relatively high, continuing to exert medium-term pressure on prices.
Robusta price outlook for March 13
With supportive and bearish factors developing simultaneously, robusta futures for May 2026 on ICE London are expected to trade with a slight upward bias but high volatility during the March 13 session.
Prices may fluctuate within the $3,600 - $3,680 per ton range. If shipping risks and logistics costs continue to rise, prices could test the $3,700 per ton level. Conversely, profit-taking after the recent rally could push prices back toward the $3,550 - $3,580 per ton support zone.
Overall, the coffee market remains supported in the short term by geopolitical risks and potential shipping disruptions. However, the outlook for abundant supply from Brazil along with strong exports from Vietnam could keep the market volatile and limit the chances of a sustained upward trend.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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