VINAGRI News - Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee exporter, officially begins its 2025/2026 coffee harvest this week.
According to forecasts from VINAGRI News, total production is expected to reach around 1.74 million tons, slightly higher than last season, thanks to favorable weather conditions and strong farmer investment following a record-high price year.
Favorable weather drives growth and yield improvement
During the 2024 - 2025 growing season, the Central Highlands - Vietnam’s key coffee-producing region - experienced steady rainfall, stable soil moisture, and no prolonged droughts as in previous years.
These conditions helped ensure high flowering and fruit-setting rates, reduced pest pressure, and laid the foundation for a bumper crop.
In the 2024/2025 season, coffee prices hit a record high of 130,000 VND/kg in several Central Highlands provinces, the highest in history. The strong prices encouraged farmers to increase investment in their farms, from irrigation and fertilization to replanting new high-yield varieties, resulting in improved productivity and bean quality.
High-yield varieties and sustainable practices boost productivity
The adoption of high-yield Robusta varieties such as TRS1 and TR14, along with efficient irrigation systems, organic fertilization, and sustainable farming standards (4C, Rainforest Alliance), has raised average yields by 3-5% compared to last season.
In Arabica-growing regions such as Son La, Dien Bien, Nghe An, and Cau Dat (Da Lat), farmers have focused on shade management and selective harvesting, leading to better bean quality for processing and export.
Challenges from late-season rains
Despite positive prospects, heavy rains from late-season storms may pose challenges for harvesting and drying, potentially affecting bean quality.
Experts advise farmers to harvest early-ripening areas first and prepare drying facilities and storage to minimize post-harvest losses.
Vietnam’s 2025/2026 coffee output forecast
Total production: ~1,740,000 tons
Robusta: ~1,600,800 tons (92%) - mainly from Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Dak Nong, Gia Lai, Kon Tum
Arabica: ~139,200 tons (8%) - concentrated in Cau Dat (Da Lat), Son La, Dien Bien, Nghe An, Quang Tri
Compared to the 2024/2025 crop (estimated at 1,720,000 tons), this represents a 1.2% increase, reflecting gains from replanting programs and favorable weather.
Positive export outlook, targeting USD 8 billion milestone
Global coffee prices in 2025 are expected to remain elevated due to tight supply in Brazil and Indonesia, while demand stays steady in Europe and the U.S.
With ample supply and improved quality, Vietnam’s coffee sector is projected to achieve export revenues exceeding USD 8 billion, setting a new record for the industry.
Urgent need to comply with EU deforestation rules
Despite the positive outlook, experts warn that exporters must accelerate the implementation of traceability systems and farm certification programs to meet the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
The EU currently accounts for over 60% of Vietnam’s coffee exports, making compliance critical for market access.
NPK/ VINAGRI News
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