VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee prices in Vietnam rose slightly on October 16, following gains on the London exchange. Weather-related concerns in Vietnam and Brazil, along with declining global inventories, continue to lend support to prices.
Summary:
> Domestic robusta prices increased by VND 700/kg, reaching VND 113,800 - 114,500/kg.
> London robusta futures (Nov 2025) climbed USD 55 to USD 4,542/ton.
> Domestic prices remain USD 197/ton lower than London futures.
> Heavy rains from typhoons Ragasa and Bualoi may have damaged crops in Vietnam’s Central Highlands.
> ICE inventories for arabica and robusta both fell to multi-month lows.
> Market analysts expect London robusta prices to rise slightly to USD 4,562 - 4,592/ton on October 16.
At the close of trading on Wednesday (October 15), London robusta coffee futures for November 2025 delivery rebounded to USD 4,542/ton, up 1.23% (+USD 55/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also rose 0.75% (+USD 33/ton) to USD 4,453/ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the November 2025 robusta futures price increased to approximately VND 119,600/kg, based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,344.98.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices on the morning of October 16 rose slightly by VND 700/kg, ranging between VND 113,800 and 114,500/kg. With the average price at VND 114,400/kg, domestic robusta is currently about VND 5,200/kg lower than the November 2025 futures contract on the London exchange - equivalent to roughly USD 197/ton.
According to Marcelo Moreira, analyst at Archer Consulting, market trends since early August have been largely influenced by weather conditions in key producing regions across Central and South America as well as Asia.
In recent weeks, traders have closely monitored the flowering stage of coffee trees in Brazil and the end of the typhoon season in Indochina, where two major storms - Ragasa and Bualoi - at the end of September also affected Vietnam.
The tail ends of these storms swept across the Central Highlands, bringing heavy rains that may have caused crop damage just weeks before the harvest began.
Moreira noted that while the extent of the damage has yet to be fully assessed, market reactions in London suggest that the impact could be significant.
Meanwhile, ICE data showed that monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 494,558 bags, while robusta stocks dropped to a 2.75-month low of 6,200 lots.
Given current conditions, unless there are unexpected shocks to the market, London robusta futures for November 2025 are expected to edge higher by USD 20 - 50/ton in the October 16 session, trading in the range of USD 4,562 - 4,592/ton.
NPK/ Vinagri News
No comments:
Post a Comment