VINAGRI News - Domestic rice prices in Vietnam, particularly the premium ST25 variety, have dropped sharply as exports slow amid the Philippines’ temporary import ban. While the suspension has dampened local demand, Vietnam’s rice industry remains resilient thanks to product quality and diversified export markets. However, uncertainty surrounding Manila’s import policy continues to weigh on sentiment.
Summary:
> Retail rice prices in Ho Chi Minh City fell significantly, with ST25 Dak Lak now at VND 19,500/kg, down VND 1,500 from last month.
> Exports have slowed due to the Philippines’ temporary rice import ban, impacting domestic demand.
> The Philippines may extend the ban until end-2025, though no official decision has been made.
> The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) says exporters are ready to resume shipments once the Philippines reopens its market.
> Vietnam exported 6.8 million tons of rice in the first nine months of 2025, down 2% in volume and nearly 20% in value year-on-year.
> Ghana has overtaken the Philippines as Vietnam’s top rice export destination.
Domestic rice prices have dropped sharply as exports slowed following the Philippines’ suspension of rice imports, a major setback for Vietnam’s top export market. While traders expect the ban to be lifted soon, uncertainty continues to pressure the local market.
Domestic prices slide amid weak export demand
A survey conducted on October 15 in Ho Chi Minh City showed ample supply and lower retail prices.
Nguyen Thanh Phong, owner of the Thanh Phong rice depot in District 10, said:
“With exports slowing, domestic supplies have increased and prices have dropped by about VND 1,000 per kilogram on average. ST25 Dak Lak rice now sells for just VND 19,500/kg, down VND 1,500 from last month.
In the Mekong Delta, paddy prices remain subdued: IR50404 ranges from VND 5,000 - 5,200/kg, OM5451 from VND 5,400 - 5,600/kg, and OM18 from VND 5,800 - 6,000/kg.
According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), export prices remain stable, with 5% broken fragrant rice at USD 430 - 450/ton and Jasmine rice at USD 486 - 490/ton.
Nguyen Vinh Trong, Director of Viet Hung Co. Ltd. (Dong Thap), noted:
“African buyers are purchasing at a slower pace, and higher inventories have pushed prices down further. Fragrant rice varieties now sell for VND 14,000 - 15,000/kg, while ST25 Dak Lak has dropped to VND 21,000 - 22,000/kg.”
Conversely, Nguyen Van Thanh, Director of Phuoc Thanh IV Co. Ltd. (Vinh Long), said:
“Export prices have remained steady because the supply of commercial paddy is limited and the autumn-winter harvest is delayed. Many farmers are intentionally retaining floodwater to enrich their fields, which also reduces planting area and supply pressure.”
Philippines’ import ban remains a key wildcard
The Philippines’ two-month rice import ban has now lasted over 45 days, pushing domestic rice prices up 28%, though still 27% lower than a year earlier.
Some agriculture officials in Manila have proposed extending the ban by another 30 days or even until end-2025, while others are considering raising import tariffs.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. said the country’s rice supply could run low by late November, forcing imports to resume in January 2026 at a rate of about 300,000 tons per month (roughly 3.6 million tons per year).
However, the Philippine government has not yet made an official decision. As of September - when the ban was first implemented - the country had already imported 3.5 million tons of rice, exceeding its annual target by 800,000 tons.
According to Nguyen Van Thanh,
“The Philippines is likely to return to the market soon as recent typhoons have disrupted its harvest. This, along with weather issues in Vietnam, could influence prices later this year.”
VFA Chairman Do Ha Nam added:
“All recent information from the Philippines is still at the proposal stage. Nevertheless, market sentiment is affected. Many Vietnamese exporters already have contracts ready to execute once the ban is lifted, which could trigger a sharp rebound in imports.”
Vietnam remains resilient with diversified markets
Mr Nam noted that Vietnam’s rice exports continue to perform well in Africa, China, and Malaysia, and the country is close to finalizing a large government-to-government deal with Senegal.
“Vietnam will face little pressure through the end of 2025. Although global supply is set to rise in 2026, Vietnam’s strong product quality and niche market positioning will help cushion the impact,” he said.
He also urged authorities to speed up tax refunds for rice exporters to ensure sufficient capital for purchasing paddy from farmers.
Exports near 7 million tons in first nine months
In September, Vietnam exported 466,800 tons of rice, down 43% in volume and 55% in value from a year earlier.
Over the first nine months of 2025, exports totaled 6.8 million tons, worth USD 3.5 billion, a decline of 2% in volume and nearly 20% in value year-on-year.
With the Philippines’ import suspension, Ghana has become Vietnam’s top rice export destination, accounting for 22% of total exports, followed by Côte d’Ivoire (21%) and Malaysia (10%).
NPK/ Vinagri News
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