VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange extended gains on Thursday (Oct. 16), closing at their highest level in a month as tight global supplies and low certified inventories continued to support prices. Analysts expect the upward momentum to persist, with prices likely to remain above $4,600 per ton on October 17.
Summary:
> London Robusta coffee futures rose 1.59% to $4,614/ton (Nov 2025).
> Domestic Vietnam Robusta prices increased to 114,600 - 115,500 VND/kg.
> Brazil still faces a 50% U.S. import tariff on green coffee beans.
> ICE-certified Arabica and Robusta stocks dropped to multi-month lows.
> Robusta prices are expected to stay firm around $4,630 - $4,680/ton on October 17 amid persistent supply tightness.
At the close of trading on Thursday, October 16, Robusta coffee futures on the ICE London exchange continued to strengthen.
The November 2025 contract rose 1.59% (+72 USD) to 4,614 USD/ton, while the January 2026 contract gained 1.59% (+71 USD) to 4,524 USD/ton.
Converted to Vietnamese currency, the November 2025 contract price is equivalent to 121,500 VND/kg, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,337 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands - the country’s key coffee-growing region - domestic Robusta prices on October 17 rose by an additional 800 - 1,000 VND/kg, reaching 114,600 - 115,500 VND/kg.
At an average of 115,300 VND/kg, domestic prices are about 6,200 VND/kg (≈235 USD/ton) lower than the London futures contract for November 2025.
Global coffee prices ended the October 16 session mixed. Robusta continued to climb to a one-month high, while Arabica futures initially rose but later retreated as traders awaited updates on trade negotiations between Brazil and the United States.
Green coffee beans - Brazil’s flagship export and the world’s largest coffee export item - still face a 50% import tariff when entering the U.S., unlike other Brazilian exports such as orange juice or certain metals that receive tariff exemptions.
This week, Brazil’s Foreign Minister and a trade delegation arrived in Washington for discussions aimed at addressing these tariffs - talks closely watched by the global commodities market.
Besides Brazil, other major coffee exporters including Vietnam, India, and Indonesia are also facing higher U.S. import tariffs ranging from 18% to 46%, while producers such as Colombia, Ethiopia, and Peru enjoy much lower rates of around 10%, creating a significant disparity in competitiveness.
Despite these trade challenges, global coffee prices continue to find support from tight supply conditions and below-average rainfall in Brazil’s key coffee regions. Analysts remain optimistic that the next harvest could still deliver solid yields despite weather concerns.
According to ICE data, certified Arabica inventories fell to their lowest level in 1.5 years, at 493,783 bags as of October 16. Robusta stocks also dropped to a 2.75-month low, at 6,177 lots.
In Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer, trading activity remains subdued due to limited supply, as beans from the new harvest have only started to enter the market.
Given the current conditions, forecasting Robusta prices remains challenging, as they depend on multiple volatile factors such as weather, currency fluctuations, trade policies, and supply-demand dynamics.
Nevertheless, the price uptrend on the London Robusta market remains supported by tight supply from leading producers like Vietnam and Brazil, low ICE-certified inventories, and dry weather concerns in Brazil.
Analysts note that if supply does not improve in the short term, Robusta prices are likely to hold above $4,600 per ton, trading within the range of $4,630 - $4,680 per ton during the session on October 17.
NPK/ Vinagri News
No comments:
Post a Comment