VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee futures on the London ICE exchange closed sharply higher on Wednesday, driven by dwindling ICE-certified stocks and adverse weather conditions in Vietnam, the world’s largest exporter of Robusta coffee.
🔹 Summary:
- London Robusta futures surged sharply on October 1, 2025, with the November 2025 contract rising 4.83% to 4,403 USD/ton.
- Prices were driven by low ICE-certified inventories and adverse weather forecasts threatening Vietnam’s harvest.
- Domestic prices in Vietnam also climbed to 116,800 - 117,900 VND/kg, closely aligning with London futures.
- Meanwhile, JICA and ECOM launched a 75 million USD initiative to strengthen sustainable coffee supply chains across Asia.
At the close of trading, the November 2025 Robusta contract rose by 4.83% (+203 USD) to 4,403 USD/ton, while the January 2026 contract gained 4.83% (+202 USD) to settle at 4,388 USD/ton.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, the November 2025 contract equates to approximately 116,200 VND/kg, based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,390 VND.
Domestic prices follow global upswing
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s key coffee-growing region, domestic Robusta prices jumped by 1,700 - 2,000 VND/kg on October 2, reaching 116,800 - 117,900 VND/kg.
With an average of 117,700 VND/kg, local Robusta prices are now only 1,500 VND/kg (roughly 56.9 USD/ton) higher than the London November 2025 futures, narrowing the gap significantly.
Drivers behind the price surge
The sharp rise in Robusta prices on October 1 is largely attributed to low ICE-certified inventories, which continue to tighten global supply and support higher prices.
Additionally, weather-related concerns in Vietnam - currently entering its peak harvest season - are fueling fears of production disruptions. Meteorological forecasts warn that after tropical storm Bualoi, another low - pressure system near the East Sea is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm, potentially affecting coffee farms in the Central Highlands.
Sustainable supply chain initiative backed by JICA and ECOM
Adding a positive note to the sector, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) has signed a 75 million USD loan agreement with ECOM Agroindustrial Corp., a leading global agricultural commodity trader.
The loan aims to support smallholder coffee farmers and promote sustainable coffee supply chains across Vietnam, Indonesia, India, and Papua New Guinea, benefiting over 60,000 farmers through stable purchasing arrangements.
Beyond financing, the initiative includes:
- Sustainability certification support,
- Climate-resilient farming pilot projects,
- Technical training and capacity-building programs for women farmers.
According to JICA, these measures are expected to enhance climate resilience, promote gender equality, and improve sustainability across the coffee value chain.
“Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, still faces challenges in increasing value addition and improving farmer incomes,” JICA noted. The agency emphasized that this partnership marks a significant step toward sustainable agricultural development and better livelihoods for coffee-growing communities.
Outlook: Prices likely to remain elevated
Market analysts believe global Robusta stocks may take up to two years to recover, even under favorable conditions, suggesting tight supply could persist.
In Vietnam, adverse weather patterns could further reduce output, while speculative buying is likely to intensify amid expectations of supply shortages.
As a result, Robusta futures on the London exchange are expected to maintain their upward trajectory or stay at elevated levels.
November 2025 contract: projected to trade between 4,400 - 4,500 USD/ton
January 2026 contract: projected range 4,380 - 4,480 USD/ton
NPK/ Vinagri News
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