VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam fell again on October 28 by 1,200 - 1,500 VND/kg to 114,500 - 115,700 VND/kg, following a sharp drop in London robusta futures. Despite expectations of tariff cuts from the U.S., pressure from rising domestic output continues to weigh on the market.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell by 1,200 - 1,500 VND/kg to 114,500 - 115,700 VND/kg.
> London robusta futures dropped sharply, with January 2026 at USD 4,450/ton.
> ICE arabica and robusta inventories declined to multi-month lows.
> U.S. President Trump announced plans to remove coffee import tariffs for Vietnam.
> Vicofa projects a 10% rise in Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output; exports up 10.9% in Jan - Sep 2025.
> Robusta prices on the London exchange expected to move within USD 4,450 - 4,550/ton on October 28.
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam declined on Monday (October 28), tracking a steep drop in robusta futures on the London exchange.
At the close of Monday’s session (October 27), London robusta futures for November 2025 delivery fell sharply to USD 4,437/ton, down 2.92% (-USD 134/ton) from the previous session. The January 2026 contract also dropped 2.34% (-USD 107/ton) to USD 4,450/ton.
Converted to local currency, the January 2026 robusta contract is equivalent to VND 117,000/kg, based on an exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,304.50.
In the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s main coffee-growing region, domestic robusta prices fell by VND 1,200 - 1,500/kg on Tuesday morning (October 28), settling between VND 114,500 and 115,700/kg. With an average price of VND 115,500/kg, domestic coffee currently trades about VND 1,500/kg (≈USD 57/ton) below the January 2026 futures price in London.
Market participants are closely watching ICE-monitored inventories, which have continued to decline sharply. ICE arabica stocks fell to a 1.5-year low of 447,773 bags on Friday (October 24), slightly rebounding to 450,743 bags by Monday. Robusta stocks also dropped to 6,122 lots, the lowest level in three months.
Adding to optimism, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that coffee will be included in a new trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, effectively eliminating the current 20% import tariff. The statement was made aboard Air Force One en route to Tokyo, according to Reuters.
However, robusta prices remain under pressure from rising domestic supply. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) projects that output in the 2025/2026 crop year could rise 10% year-on-year if weather conditions remain favorable. Data from the General Statistics Office (GSO) show that Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to September 2025 rose 10.9% from the same period last year to 1.23 million tons, while total production for the crop year is expected to climb 6% to 1.76 million tons (29.4 million bags) - the highest level in four years.
Given these mixed signals, robusta prices on the London exchange for the January 2026 contract are expected to trade in a narrow to slightly higher range during the session on October 28, with limited upside potential due to persistent market risks. Prices are likely to fluctuate between USD 4,450 and USD 4,550 per ton.
NPK/ Vinagri News
No comments:
Post a Comment