VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s rice exports in the first nine months of 2025 remained stable in volume but dropped 18.5% in value, mainly due to lower average export prices and import suspensions from key buyers Philippines and Indonesia. The sector is under strong pressure, requiring an urgent shift toward value-added exports, focusing on high-quality fragrant rice and strong brand development to maintain competitiveness.
Summary:
> Export volume: 7 million tonnes, value: USD 3.55 billion, slightly up in volume but sharply down in value.
> Philippines extends import ban until end-2025, Indonesia also halts imports.
> Global rice prices drop sharply; competition intensifies, weighing on exporters.
> Domestic firms face losses from high-cost inventories; 5% VAT reduces export attractiveness.
> Experts urge shift toward value-added products: premium fragrant rice, branding, market forecasting.
> Proposed measures: VAT reduction, temporary stockpiling, and investment in storage & logistics infrastructure.
Vietnam’s rice exports have faced significant headwinds this year as value fell despite stable shipment volumes. In the first nine months of 2025, the country exported around 7 million tonnes, up 0.1% year-on-year, but export earnings declined 18.5% to USD 3.55 billion due to lower average export prices. In September, exports totaled 600,000 tonnes, worth USD 288 million.
Meanwhile, Vietnam spent USD 1.5 billion on rice imports, leaving the sector’s trade surplus at just over USD 2 billion, down 38.7% compared to the same period last year.
The outlook has turned more uncertain after the Philippines, Vietnam’s top export market, extended its rice import ban until the end of 2025. Initially planned for 60 days, the ban’s extension has left Vietnamese exporters in a difficult position. Similarly, Indonesia - another major buyer - has suspended imports since early 2025 to prioritize domestic consumption and high stockpiles.
According to Le Phat Long, Director of Phat Tai Co., Ltd. (Dong Thap), the challenge is not unique to Vietnam; Thailand, India, and Myanmar are also facing weaker demand amid abundant global supply. International prices have dropped to multi-year lows: Myanmar’s white rice is offered at USD 275 - 280/tonne, India under USD 300/tonne, and Thailand around USD 350/tonne.
In Vietnam, firms such as Vrice report stable export volumes but a 15 - 20% decline in value due to intense price competition. Even fragrant rice, a key strength of Vietnam, has been impacted by global price trends.
Adding to the difficulties, many exporters are at risk of losses after purchasing high-priced paddy during the Winter-Spring and Summer-Autumn crops but failing to offload inventories. The 5% export VAT further discourages shipments and may reduce farmers’ selling opportunities in upcoming harvests.
Experts warn that if Philippines and Indonesia do not resume imports in 2026, Vietnam’s Winter-Spring crop - the country’s largest harvest - will face severe marketing challenges.
According to Phan Mai Huong, co-founder of SSRicenews, the Philippines’ extended ban, its planned tariff hike from 15% to 35%, and a broader push for food self-sufficiency among major importers will intensify global competition.
In response, industry experts recommend Vietnam shift from quantity-driven to value-driven growth, focusing on premium fragrant rice, quality branding, and stronger market intelligence.
Short-term measures proposed include:
Reducing export VAT from 5% to 0 - 2% and expediting VAT refunds to improve liquidity;
Launching a temporary stockpiling program during peak harvests to stabilize domestic prices;
Investing in drying, storage, and logistics infrastructure across the Mekong Delta to boost processing capacity.
In the long term, diversification of export markets, proactive production planning, deeper processing, and robust branding will be essential for Vietnam’s rice sector to withstand international volatility and secure sustainable growth.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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