VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee prices on the London ICE exchange jumped sharply on Tuesday, supported by prolonged heavy rains and flooding across Vietnam’s Central Highlands that are delaying harvest progress. Domestic prices also rebounded, while concerns over tightening supply and falling ICE inventories continued to underpin the market.
Summary:
> London ICE robusta Jan 2026 rose USD 106 to USD 4,559/tonne.
> Domestic Vietnam prices rebounded to VND 111,400 - 112,200/kg.
> Local prices remain VND 8,200/kg (USD 311/tonne) below futures.
> Heavy rains, flooding, and forecasts of more storms threaten harvest progress.
> ICE inventories continue to fall, supporting global prices.
> Price outlook for 26 November: USD 4,550 - 4,600, with upside to USD 4,650.
Robusta coffee futures on the London ICE exchange closed sharply higher on Tuesday (25 November). The January 2026 contract climbed to USD 4,559 per tonne, up USD 106 or 2.38% from the previous session. The March 2026 contract also strengthened, rising USD 101 (2.34%) to USD 4,414 per tonne.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the January 2026 robusta contract corresponds to VND 120,200 per kg, based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,372.50.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic robusta prices on the morning of 26 November increased by VND 1,000 - 1,800 per kg, reaching VND 111,400 - 112,200 per kg. With an average of VND 112,000 per kg, local prices remain VND 8,200 per kg lower than the January 2026 futures price, equivalent to a discount of USD 311 per tonne.
Robusta prices received strong support from persistent heavy rainfall and flooding across key coffee-growing regions in Vietnam in recent days, which have heightened concerns over further harvest delays. According to Barchart, additional heavy rains are forecast in the coming period, reinforcing expectations of short-term supply tightening.
According to Nguyễn Văn Hưởng, Head of Weather Forecasting at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the path of Storm No. 15 remains highly unpredictable due to the influence of three major systems: the subtropical high, westerly winds, and cold air masses.
While the storm’s impact depends on its exact trajectory, central Vietnam is expected to face moderate to heavy rains from 28 - 30 November, particularly from Huế to Lâm Đồng - a key robusta-producing region. This weather pattern is likely to further affect coffee harvesting activities in the Central Highlands.
Additional market support came from decreasing ICE-monitored coffee inventories. Arabica stocks tracked by ICE fell to 398,645 bags, the lowest in 1.75 years as of last Thursday. Robusta inventories also declined to 5,134 lots, the lowest in 4.5 months as of Tuesday.
Looking ahead, robusta futures for January 2026 on the London ICE exchange are expected to trade in the range of USD 4,550 - 4,600 per tonne during the 26 November session, with potential to test USD 4,620 - 4,650 per tonne if further negative supply or weather developments emerge.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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