Global coffee markets await Monday’s opening as domestic robusta prices ease

VINAGRI News - Global coffee exchanges - ICE New York (Arabica) and ICE London (Robusta) - will open the first trading session of the week this Monday (Nov 24) at around 4:00 PM (Vietnam time). Robusta futures for January 2026 are trading significantly higher than domestic prices, while ICE-monitored inventories continue to fall. However, U.S. tariff removal on Brazilian coffee is expected to boost future stock levels and could pressure prices.

Summary:

> Global coffee exchanges reopen today at 4:00 PM (Vietnam time).

> Robusta Jan 2026 futures: USD 4,506/ton; Arabica Dec 2025: 400 cents/lb.

> Domestic robusta trades VND 6,700/kg (USD 254/ton) below London futures.

> ICE arabica and robusta inventories remain at multi-month lows.

> U.S. tariff removal on Brazilian coffee expected to push inventories higher.

> Robusta Jan 2026 prices forecast to move within USD 4,450 - 4,500/ton.

Major global coffee exchanges, including ICE New York (Arabica) and ICE London (Robusta), are set to open their first trading session of the week at around 4:00 PM (Vietnam time) on Monday (November 24).

At the end of last Friday’s session, robusta futures for January 2026 on ICE London settled at USD 4,506/ton, while arabica futures for December 2025 on ICE New York closed at 400.00 US cents/pound, equivalent to USD 8,818/ton.

Based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,375, the January 2026 robusta contract is valued at approximately VND 118,800 per kilogram.

In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices fell by VND 500/kg on the morning of November 24, down to VND 111,100 - 112,200/kg. With an average price of VND 112,100/kg, domestic robusta currently trades VND 6,700/kg lower than the January 2026 London futures price - equivalent to a discount of roughly USD 254/ton.

ICE-monitored inventories continue to tighten: arabica stocks have dropped to a 1.75-year low at 398,645 bags as of last Thursday, while robusta inventories fell to a 4-month low of 5,567 lots late last week. Earlier U.S. import tariffs had caused many American roasters to avoid new contracts with Brazil, resulting in a 52% decline in Brazilian coffee imports between August and October compared to the same period last year.

However, with the United States now lifting import tariffs on Brazilian coffee, ICE inventories are expected to stabilize and gradually increase in the near future.

Market analysts forecast that robusta futures for January 2026 may soften slightly or hold at marginally lower levels in Monday’s session, trading around USD 4,450 - 4,500/ton. In case of stronger pressure from market sentiment or fund outflows, prices could dip further to USD 4,430 - 4,450/ton.

NPK/ Vinagri News