VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange extended their decline on November 13, while domestic prices in Vietnam also weakened. Market sentiment remains pressured by expectations of improved global supply despite support from falling ICE inventories.
Summary:
> Robusta futures on the London exchange fell to 4,343 USD/ton on November 13.
> Vietnam’s domestic robusta prices dropped to 111,000 - 113,000 VND/kg.
> ICE-certified inventories for both arabica and robusta declined sharply.
> Forecasts point to a global surplus of 7 - 10 million bags in 2026 - 2027.
> January 2026 robusta futures are expected to trade at 4,300 - 4,350 USD/ton on November 14.
Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange continued to retreat in the session on Thursday (November 13). The January 2026 futures contract closed at 4,343 USD/ton, down 0.52% (-23 USD) from the previous session. Other maturities also moved lower, with the November 2025 contract falling 0.51% (-23 USD) to 4,369 USD/ton.
Based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,355.50 VND, the January 2026 robusta futures contract is equivalent to 114,400 VND/kg.
In Vietnam’s domestic market, robusta prices in the Central Highlands dropped an additional 500 VND/kg on the morning of November 14, settling at 111,000 - 113,000 VND/kg. With an average price of 112,800 VND/kg, domestic robusta is currently trading 1,600 VND/kg lower than the January 2026 futures price on the London exchange, equivalent to a discount of approximately 61 USD/ton.
On the New York and London exchanges, arabica futures for December 2025 (KCZ25) fell 1.95 cents (-0.47%), while London’s January 2026 robusta futures (RMF26) slid another 23 USD (-0.52%). This marks the second consecutive decline for arabica and the fourth for robusta, pushing robusta prices to their lowest level in two weeks.
ICE-certified inventories continued to fall sharply, providing some underlying support for prices. The 50% U.S. import tariff on Brazilian coffee has contributed to a steep drawdown in stocks. ICE-tracked arabica inventories dropped to a 1.75-year low at 403,430 bags, while robusta inventories slipped to 5,760 lots, the lowest in nearly four months.
Rabobank forecasts that the global coffee market will shift into a surplus of 7 - 10 million bags in the 2026 - 2027 crop year, driven by a strong recovery in Brazil’s arabica output after a period of decline.
StoneX similarly projects a record 70.7 million bags for Brazil’s 2026 - 2027 coffee harvest, supported by improving arabica yields. However, the consultancy notes that output remains vulnerable to weather risks and localized production challenges.
Looking ahead to November 14, robusta futures for January 2026 on ICE London are expected to continue softening, though at a slower pace. The projected price range is 4,300 - 4,350 USD/ton, with potential intraday volatility and bargain-buying interest.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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