VINAGRI News - London Robusta coffee futures fell sharply to $4,530 per tonne on November 6 amid rising supply from Vietnam and improved weather forecasts in Brazil, while domestic prices in Vietnam also dropped in tandem.
Summary:
> London Robusta January 2026 futures dropped 3.32% to $4,530/tonne.
> Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam fell to 115,700 - 117,000 VND/kg.
> ICE coffee stocks hit multi-month lows, while Brazil’s weather improved.
> Vietnam’s 2025 - 2026 coffee output forecast to rise up to 10%.
> Storms Kalmaegi and Fung-wong threaten short-term harvest disruption.
> Price forecast for November 7: $4,480 - $4,510/tonne, slightly lower.
At the close of trading on Thursday (November 6), January 2026 Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange fell sharply again to $4,530 per tonne, down 3.32% (-$156 per tonne) from the previous session. Other contracts also recorded steep losses, with the November 2025 futures down 3.31% (-$156 per tonne) to $4,544 per tonne.
Converted to Vietnamese currency, the January 2026 Robusta futures price equals 119,200 VND/kg, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,310 VND.
In the Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices on the morning of November 7 dropped sharply by 1,700 - 2,500 VND/kg, to a range of 115,700 - 117,000 VND/kg. With an average of 116,800 VND/kg, local Robusta prices are currently 2,400 VND/kg lower than the January 2026 London futures price - equivalent to about $91 per tonne.
Coffee inventories on the ICE exchange continued to decline sharply. ICE-monitored arabica stocks fell to their lowest level in 1.75 years at 418,203 bags, while robusta inventories hit a 3.5-month low at just 6,030 lots. The U.S. imposition of a 50% import tariff on Brazilian coffee has led many roasters to cancel contracts, tightening supplies in the U.S., which typically imports around one-third of its unroasted coffee from Brazil.
According to forecasts, steady rainfall in Brazil over the coming week is expected to ease the prolonged drought in key arabica-growing regions, pressuring global coffee prices lower. Meanwhile, robusta prices remain under downward pressure from rising supplies in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer.
Data from Vietnam’s General Statistics Office show that the country’s coffee exports between January and October 2025 reached 1.31 million tonnes, up 13.4% year-on-year. Production for the 2025 - 2026 crop year is forecast to rise 6% to 1.76 million tonnes (29.4 million bags) - the highest level in four years. The Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (Vicofa) also noted that if weather conditions remain favorable, total output could increase by up to 10% compared to the previous season.
Tropical storm Kalmaegi swept through the central and Central Highlands provinces on the night of November 6 and early November 7, bringing heavy rain and strong winds that caused significant cherry drop in coffee farms currently in peak harvest. Following the storm, Tropical Storm Fung-wong (Typhoon No. 14) has formed and is moving toward the eastern coast of Luzon (the Philippines), with a northward trajectory toward the East Sea and potential to strengthen into a super typhoon.
Meteorologists warn that persistent heavy rains could damage crops, disrupt harvesting, and affect bean quality. Vietnam began harvesting the 2025 - 2026 crop last month, and according to Greg Oddo, Weather Strategy Specialist at Sucafina, while storms may cause short-term disruptions, high prices will encourage farmers to collect fallen cherries, minimizing losses. Thus, the overall supply impact is expected to remain limited.
Given the current supply-demand balance and technical signals, Robusta coffee prices are likely to continue edging lower, though the decline should slow compared to the previous session due to bargain buying from roasters and speculative traders.
The January 2026 London Robusta futures are forecast to close between $4,480 and $4,510 per tonne on November 7, 2025, representing a 0.4 - 1.1% decline from the previous session.
If heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands cause greater-than-expected damage, prices may hold around $4,520 per tonne or even rise slightly toward the end of the session amid supply disruption concerns. Conversely, if markets receive stronger signals of abundant supply from Vietnam or a stronger U.S. dollar, prices could fall toward the support level of $4,450 per tonne.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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