VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange continued to rise on November 18, supported by sharply lower ICE inventories, weather-related supply disruptions in Brazil and Vietnam, and tightening availability in the U.S. market. Domestic prices in Vietnam also climbed, though they remain below the January 2026 futures equivalent. Prices on November 19 are expected to maintain a mildly bullish bias unless adverse news triggers a pullback.
Summary:
> London robusta Jan 2026: USD 4,573/ton (+2.01%).
> Domestic Vietnam prices: VND 113,800 - 115,000/kg, still below futures equivalent by VND 6,000/kg.
> ICE stocks: Arabica at 1.75-year low; robusta at 4-month low.
> U.S. imports from Brazil down 52% due to tariffs.
> Weather risks in both Brazil and Vietnam continue to limit supply.
> Forecast for Nov 19: Mildly bullish toward USD 4,600 - 4,650/ton; support at USD 4,500/ton.
Robusta coffee futures on the London ICE exchange extended their gains in the Tuesday session (November 18). The January 2026 contract closed at USD 4,573/ton, up 2.01% (+USD 90/ton) from the previous session. Other maturities also advanced strongly, with the November 2025 contract rising 2.72% (+USD 121/ton) to USD 4,574/ton.
Converted to Vietnamese đồng, the January 2026 futures equivalent stands at VND 120,600/kg, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,387.52 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic robusta prices on the morning of November 19 rose by VND 1,200 - 1,300/kg, reaching VND 113,800 - 115,000/kg. With an average of VND 114,600/kg, domestic robusta is currently VND 6,000/kg lower than the January 2026 London futures equivalent, equivalent to a discount of roughly USD 227/ton.
ICE-monitored inventories continued to decline sharply, further supporting prices. Arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags as of Tuesday. ICE robusta stocks also dropped to a four-month low of 5,648 lots on Monday. High U.S. import tariffs have led many American roasters to cancel Brazilian coffee purchases, tightening domestic supply; Brazil normally accounts for roughly one-third of U.S. green coffee imports. U.S. purchases of Brazilian coffee from August to October fell 52% year-on-year to 983,970 bags.
Weather conditions in Brazil also provided support. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-producing state, received only 19.8 mm of rain in the week ending November 14, equivalent to 42% of the historical average.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands - the heart of global robusta production - heavy rainfall continued following Typhoon Kalmaegi, coinciding with the peak harvest period. According to the Gia Lai Hydrometeorological Station, the eastern part of the province is expected to see 50 - 100 mm, and in some areas over 150 mm, of rainfall from the night of November 19 to the night of November 20. In Dak Lak, prolonged heavy rain between the night of November 16 and the morning of November 17 reached 30 - 100 mm, with some areas exceeding 300 mm, causing localized flooding in coffee-growing regions. Adverse weather has significantly reduced yields and slowed harvesting, drying and processing operations, delaying the new-crop supply.
Despite multiple supportive factors, the market still faces downside risks. If the robusta harvest in Vietnam stabilizes more quickly than expected, supply could increase again. With prices already elevated, profit-taking or a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction may also emerge.
During the November 19 session on ICE London, the January 2026 robusta contract is expected to maintain a mildly upward trajectory, potentially testing the USD 4,600 - 4,650/ton range if supportive factors persist. Should unfavorable developments arise, prices may pull back toward the USD 4,500/ton support zone.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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