VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange continued to decline on November 24, while domestic prices in Vietnam also fell as dry weather allowed harvest activities to resume. Despite downward pressure, tightening ICE inventories and rising arabica prices helped limit further losses. Robusta futures for January 2026 are expected to trade slightly lower in the November 25 session.
Summary:
> Robusta January 2026 futures fell to USD 4,453/ton (-1.17%) on November 24.
> Domestic robusta prices in Vietnam dropped to 109,600 - 111,200 VND/kg.
> Dry weather in the Central Highlands allowed harvesting to resume, pressuring prices.
> Arabica prices increased amid drought concerns in Brazil.
> ICE inventories for both arabica and robusta declined to multi-month lows.
> U.S. tariffs reduced imports of Brazilian coffee by 52% from August to October.
> Forecast for November 25: USD 4,430 - 4,470/ton, slight downward tendency.
Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange extended their decline at the close of Monday’s session (November 24). The January 2026 contract dropped to USD 4,453/ton, down 1.17% (-USD 53/ton) from the previous session. Other maturities also weakened, with the March 2026 contract falling 0.91% (-USD 40/ton) to USD 4,313/ton.
Converted to Vietnamese VND, the January 2026 robusta contract stood at 117,400 VND/kg, based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = 26,378.54 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic robusta prices continued to decline on the morning of November 25, falling by 1,000 - 1,500 VND/kg to 109,600 - 111,200 VND/kg. With an average price of 111,000 VND/kg, domestic robusta currently trades 6,400 VND/kg lower than the January 2026 London futures equivalent -roughly USD 242/ton.
The robusta market came under pressure as dry weather returned across the Central Highlands, allowing farmers to resume harvesting after several days of heavy rain. International traders noted that recent floods in Vietnam did not significantly impact key producing regions, reducing concerns about supply disruptions.
In contrast, arabica prices surged amid growing worries over drought conditions in Brazil. Data from Somar Meteorologia showed that Minas Gerais - the country’s largest arabica-producing region - received only 26.4 mm of rainfall in the week ending November 21, equivalent to 49% of the historical average. This raised fears of tightening supply ahead.
ICE-certified inventories continued to decline, offering some support to prices. Arabica stocks monitored by ICE fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags last Thursday. Robusta inventories also slid to a 4.5-month low, dropping to 5,370 lots on Monday. U.S. import tariffs prompted buyers to cancel many Brazilian coffee contracts, further tightening supply. Between August and October, U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee fell 52% year-on-year.
Looking ahead, January 2026 robusta futures on the London exchange are expected to trade in the range of USD 4,430 - 4,470/ton on November 25. The market is likely to show a mild downward bias, though not sharply, as falling ICE inventories and continued strength in arabica prices remain supportive factors.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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