VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee futures for March 2026 on the London ICE exchange fell to USD 4,212/ton on December 3, while domestic prices in Vietnam dropped sharply to as low as 102,800 VND/kg. Despite strong export performance, tightening global inventories and market corrections point to a mildly bearish trading range of USD 4,160 - 4,210/ton for December 4.
Summary:
> Robusta futures for March 2026 fell to USD 4,212/ton on December 3.
> Domestic Vietnamese robusta prices dropped to 102,800 - 103,900 VND/kg on December 4.
> ICE inventories for arabica and robusta fell to multi-year lows.
> Vietnam’s coffee export value in the first 11 months of 2025 surged nearly 60 percent.
> March 2026 futures expected to trade between 4,160 - 4,210 USD/ton on December 4.
Robusta coffee futures on the London ICE exchange continued their downward trajectory on Wednesday, December 3. The March 2026 contract slipped by 0.16 percent, losing 7 USD per ton to close at 4,212 USD per ton. The January 2026 contract also weakened, dropping 0.82 percent, or 36 USD per ton, to finish at 4,315 USD per ton. Based on the prevailing exchange rate of 1 USD to 26,373 VND, the March 2026 futures price is equivalent to approximately 111,000 VND per kilogram.
In Vietnam, the domestic market saw another steep decline in prices during the morning session of December 4. Robusta prices across the Central Highlands fell by 1,700 to 1,900 VND per kilogram, settling within the range of 102,800 to 103,900 VND per kilogram. With an average price of 103,600 VND per kilogram, the domestic market currently trades about 7,400 VND below the March 2026 futures equivalent, reflecting a discount of roughly 280 USD per ton relative to the London futures market.
Meanwhile, ICE-certified coffee inventories continued to contract significantly. The United States’ tariff measures on Brazilian coffee led to a 52 percent decline in imports between August and October, tightening available supplies. Arabica inventories monitored by ICE fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, while robusta inventories dropped to an 11-month low of 4,115 lots as of Wednesday. These shrinking inventories highlight ongoing supply-side pressures in the global market.
Vietnam’s export performance remained robust during the first 11 months of 2025, providing a notable contrast to short-term price weakness. Coffee export volume reached 1.4 million tons, generating 7.88 billion USD in revenue. This represented an increase of 14.1 percent in volume and a remarkable 59.7 percent rise in export value compared with the same period last year. The average export price climbed to 5,667.6 USD per ton, up 39.9 percent year-on-year, underscoring strong global demand amid tightening supply conditions.
Although the recent price correction on the London exchange indicates a softening market, the downward pressure appears to be moderating. Market sentiment suggests that robusta futures for March 2026 are likely to continue moving within a mild corrective range. Prices are expected to fluctuate between 4,160 and 4,210 USD per ton during the December 4 trading session, reflecting cautious market positioning as traders assess supply conditions and global macroeconomic signals.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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