VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices extended gains on December 31, rising by VND 500 - 1,300 per kg to VND 97,000 - 98,100 per kg, supported by strong robusta futures on the ICE London exchange and ongoing concerns over global supply, despite pressure from a stronger US dollar and seasonal harvesting in Vietnam.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose to VND 97,000 - 98,100/kg on December 31
> March 2026 robusta futures in London closed at USD 3,945/ton, up 1.57%
> Domestic prices remain about VND 5,800/kg below London futures equivalents
> Supply concerns linked to Indonesia floods and low ICE inventories support prices
> Strong US dollar and Vietnam’s harvest limit upside momentum in the short term
Vietnam’s domestic coffee market continued its upward momentum on December 31, with prices in the Central Highlands increasing by VND 500 - 1,300 per kg from the previous session, reaching a range of VND 97,000 - 98,100 per kg. The average domestic robusta price stood at around VND 97,900 per kg.
On the international market, robusta coffee futures recorded strong gains in the previous session. At the close of trading on Tuesday, December 30, the March 2026 robusta contract on the ICE London exchange surged by 1.57%, or USD 61 per metric ton, to settle at USD 3,945 per ton. Other nearby contracts also rose sharply, with the January 2026 contract up 1.82% (+USD 73) to USD 4,092 per ton, while the May 2026 contract increased to USD 3,863 per ton.
Based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,295, the March 2026 robusta futures price is equivalent to approximately VND 103,700 per kg. This places Vietnam’s average domestic robusta price about VND 5,800 per kg lower than the London futures price, equivalent to a discount of roughly USD 220 per ton.
The robusta market continues to receive support from several fundamental factors. Widespread flooding in Indonesia is expected to reduce arabica output by up to 15% in the 2025 - 2026 season. Although robusta production has been less affected, the situation has heightened broader concerns about global coffee supply. In addition, ICE-monitored robusta inventories currently stand at 4,278 lots - the highest level in four weeks but still relatively low compared with medium-term averages - providing further price support.
However, upward momentum is being partially constrained by a strengthening US dollar, which typically weighs on dollar-denominated commodities, as well as ongoing robusta harvesting in Vietnam, which is adding short-term supply to the market.
Overall, robusta futures for March 2026 on the ICE London exchange are expected to maintain a positive tone or edge slightly higher in the December 31 session, trading within a projected range of USD 3,860 - 4,100 per ton. Market volatility is likely to be driven by year-end profit-taking, while the broader outlook remains constructive amid tight global supply and steady demand.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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