VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell sharply on January 21, dropping by 1,300 - 1,400 dong/kg, tracking a steep decline in global robusta futures. Improved rainfall forecasts in Brazil and ample supply from Vietnam continued to weigh on market sentiment, though prices are expected to stabilize after the recent sell-off.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell 1,300 - 1,400 dong/kg on January 21.
> ICE London March 2026 robusta futures closed at $3,941/mt, down 1.87%.
> Domestic prices are trading at a $201/mt discount to London futures.
> Improved rainfall in Brazil and strong Vietnamese supply weigh on prices.
> Robusta prices are expected to stabilize or edge lower within a narrow range.
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam declined sharply on January 21, falling by 1,300 - 1,400 dong/kg from the previous day to a range of 97,400 - 98,400 dong/kg, as global robusta futures weakened significantly in the previous trading session.
At the close of trading on Tuesday, January 20, ICE London robusta coffee futures for March 2026 delivery dropped sharply by 1.87% (-$75/mt) to $3,941/mt. Other contracts also posted notable losses, with the January 2026 contract down 1.53% (-$64/mt) to $4,126/mt, while the May 2026 contract fell 1.80% (-$71/mt) to $3,864/mt.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, the March 2026 robusta futures price currently stands at approximately 103,500 dong/kg, based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,269 dong.
With domestic robusta prices averaging around 98,200 dong/kg, Vietnam’s internal market is trading at a discount of roughly 5,300 dong/kg compared with London March 2026 futures - equivalent to about $201/mt.
Robusta coffee futures for March 2026 on the London exchange are expected to move sideways to slightly lower in the January 21 session, following the sharp decline recorded a day earlier amid improved weather forecasts in Brazil.
The steep drop on January 20 pushed the market into a technical correction phase, increasing the likelihood of short-term bargain buying. Market analysts identify a key support zone at $3,900 - 3,920/mt, while near-term resistance is seen at $4,000 - 4,030/mt. In the absence of major new fundamental developments, prices are expected to fluctuate mainly within the $3,900 - 3,980/mt range.
Downward pressure continues to stem from forecasts of widespread rainfall across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, particularly Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-producing state. Improved weather conditions are easing concerns over drought stress and enhancing crop prospects.
At the same time, ample robusta supply from Vietnam remains a bearish factor. Vietnam’s coffee exports rose strongly in 2025, while expectations of dry weather supporting the ongoing harvest have further strengthened near-term global supply. Additionally, ICE-monitored robusta inventories have rebounded to their highest level in around 1.5 months, dampening upside price momentum.
Despite the bearish tone, some supportive elements persist. Rainfall levels in Brazil, while improving, remain below long-term historical averages, meaning weather-related risks have not been fully eliminated. Moreover, Brazilian farmers continue to limit physical coffee sales at current price levels, helping to prevent a deeper decline in futures prices.
Analysts believe the likelihood of another sharp decline in robusta prices during the January 21 session is limited. Instead, the market is expected to pause after the recent sell-off, with prices moving sideways or edging slightly lower as traders await clearer signals from weather developments, harvest progress, and export flows.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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