VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam rebounded slightly on January 30, rising by 300 - 500 dong per kilogram, tracking gains in ICE London robusta futures. While weather concerns in Vietnam continue to lend support, recovering inventories and strong export flows are limiting upside momentum.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose 300 - 500 dong/kg on January 30
> ICE London robusta futures closed higher, led by the March 2026 contract
> Domestic prices remain discounted to London May 2026 futures
> Dry weather in Vietnam supports prices, but inventory recovery limits gains
> Robusta May 2026 expected to trade between $4,050 and $4,150 per ton
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices recorded a modest recovery on the morning of January 30, increasing by 300 - 500 dong per kilogram to a range of 101,100 - 102,100 dong/kg across the Central Highlands. The average domestic price stood at approximately 101,800 dong/kg.
The rebound followed gains in the London robusta futures market. At the close of Thursday’s session (January 29), ICE London robusta coffee for March 2026 settled at $4,179 per metric ton, up 0.82% (+$34) from the previous session. Other nearby contracts also posted gains, with May 2026 rising 0.56% (+$23) to $4,096 per ton, and July 2026 advancing 0.30% (+$12) to $3,996 per ton.
Based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 25,094.50 dong, the May 2026 robusta contract is equivalent to approximately 106,100 dong/kg. At current levels, domestic robusta prices remain about 4,300 dong/kg lower than the May 2026 London futures price, representing a discount of roughly $166 per ton.
Robusta prices for the May 2026 contract are expected to trade within a narrow range during the January 30 session, with a sideways-to-slightly-higher bias. Market sentiment remains cautious as investors weigh mixed signals from weather conditions and global supply-demand dynamics.
Support for prices continues to come from prolonged dry weather in Vietnam’s Central Highlands. Forecasts indicate rainfall over the next 7 - 10 days will remain below the long-term average, raising concerns about short-term supply prospects and encouraging precautionary buying in the futures market.
However, upside potential is likely to be capped by the recovery in ICE-monitored robusta inventories. In addition, Vietnam’s coffee exports remain strong, contributing to global supply availability and easing immediate concerns over shortages.
In the absence of a strong new catalyst, ICE London robusta coffee for May 2026 is expected to trade mainly within the $4,050 - 4,150 per ton range. Short-term momentum remains slightly bullish if dry conditions in Vietnam persist and continue to heighten supply concerns.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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