VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices continued to rise on January 28, tracking strong gains on the London robusta futures market amid a firm Brazilian real and ongoing weather concerns in Brazil, although recovering ICE inventories may cap upside momentum.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose to VND 101,600 - 102,600/kg on January 28.
> London robusta futures closed sharply higher on January 27, led by the March 2026 contract at USD 4,275/ton.
> Domestic robusta prices remain at a USD 264/ton discount to May 2026 London futures.
> A strong Brazilian real and below-average rainfall in Brazil continue to support prices.
> Recovering ICE inventories may limit upside in the short term.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose by an additional VND 500 - 700 per kilogram on the morning of January 28, reaching a range of VND 101,600 - 102,600/kg across the Central Highlands.
In the global market, robusta coffee futures continued their strong upward trend in the previous session. At the close of trading on Tuesday (January 27), March 2026 robusta futures on ICE London settled at USD 4,275 per ton, up 1.86% (+USD 78) from the prior session. Other contracts also posted solid gains, with May 2026 rising 1.92% (+USD 79) to USD 4,192 per ton, and July 2026 up 1.89% (+USD 76) to USD 4,100 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the May 2026 robusta contract is currently valued at approximately VND 109,300/kg, based on an exchange rate of VND 26,090 per USD.
With an average domestic price of around VND 102,400/kg, Vietnam’s robusta coffee remains VND 6,900/kg lower than the May 2026 London futures price, equivalent to a discount of roughly USD 264 per ton.
Entering the January 28 trading session, the global coffee market is expected to remain supported by both macroeconomic and fundamental factors. The Brazilian real, which is hovering near its strongest level in nearly 20 months, continues to discourage selling by Brazilian farmers and exporters. As Brazil is the world’s largest coffee supplier, this has contributed to tighter short-term global supply.
Weather conditions in Brazil also remain under close scrutiny. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-growing state, has been below historical averages in recent weeks, raising concerns over coffee bean development and underpinning buying sentiment on futures exchanges.
On ICE London, robusta prices are expected to remain elevated following the sharp rally on January 27. The May 2026 contract is forecast to trade sideways to slightly higher, with an anticipated range of USD 4,150 - 4,230 per ton, depending on movements in the US dollar and short-term profit-taking activity.
Despite the broadly positive outlook, some downward pressures persist. ICE-monitored coffee inventories have shown signs of recovery from recent lows, easing immediate supply concerns. In addition, after a series of strong gains, the market may experience technical corrections driven by profit-taking.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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