VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices dropped sharply on January 29, tracking steep losses in global robusta futures after a weaker Brazilian real triggered heavy selling on international markets. Despite the decline, domestic prices remain below London futures, reflecting cautious sentiment amid ample supply prospects.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell 800 - 1,000 VND/kg on January 29 to 100,800 - 101,600 VND/kg.
> ICE London robusta futures dropped sharply on January 28, with the May 2026 contract closing at 4,073 USD/ton.
> Domestic robusta prices are trading at a discount of about 180 USD/ton to London futures.
> A weaker Brazilian real, rising ICE inventories, and strong Vietnamese exports are pressuring prices.
> Robusta may test support near 4,000 USD/ton, with limited scope for a sustained rebound in the near term.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell sharply again on January 29, dropping by 800 - 1,000 VND per kilogram to 100,800 - 101,600 VND/kg, following a renewed sell-off in global coffee markets.
At the close of trading on Wednesday (January 28), ICE London robusta coffee futures recorded steep losses. The March 2026 contract fell 3.04% (-130 USD) to 4,145 USD per metric ton. Other contracts also declined strongly, with May 2026 down 2.84% (-119 USD) to 4,073 USD per ton, while the July 2026 contract slid 2.83% (-116 USD) to 3,984 USD per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the May 2026 robusta futures price currently stands at approximately 106,100 VND/kg, based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,054.50 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main coffee-growing region, prices on the morning of January 29 retreated sharply in line with global trends, settling in the range of 100,800 - 101,600 VND/kg. At an average domestic price of 101,400 VND/kg, Vietnam’s robusta coffee is now trading about 4,700 VND/kg lower than the London May 2026 futures price, equivalent to a discount of roughly 180 USD per ton.
Global coffee prices are expected to remain volatile but cautious during the January 29 trading session, as markets continue to be influenced by the weakening Brazilian real and relatively ample global supply prospects.
On ICE London, robusta futures are likely to trade sideways or edge lower following the sharp losses in the previous session. The Brazilian real’s retreat from a nearly 20-month high has encouraged producers to increase sales, while also triggering the liquidation of long positions in the futures market.
Additional downward pressure comes from the recovery in ICE-monitored coffee inventories, alongside a strong rise in Vietnam’s coffee exports - the world’s largest robusta producer - fueling concerns over short-term oversupply.
Market participants expect robusta prices to test the key psychological support level around 4,000 USD per ton during the January 29 session. While a limited technical rebound cannot be ruled out if selling pressure eases, the outlook for a sustained price recovery remains uncertain as traders closely monitor currency movements in Brazil and fresh signals from the global coffee supply-demand balance.
NPK/ Vinagri News
No comments:
Post a Comment