VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices on January 5, 2026 remained largely unchanged at 98,000 - 98,600 VND/kg, while global coffee markets are expected to open the new week on a firm footing amid currency support, tight supply concerns, and cautious selling sentiment.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices on Jan 5 remain steady at 98,000 - 98,600 VND/kg.
> ICE London March 2026 robusta closed last week at USD 3,954/tonne.
> Domestic prices are about 5,300 VND/kg (USD 201/tonne) below London futures.
> Strong Brazilian real, low ICE inventories, and supply concerns support prices.
> Robusta futures are expected to trade sideways to slightly higher in the USD 3,950 - 4,050/tonne range.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices were mostly stable on Monday, January 5, 2026, trading in the range of 98,000 - 98,600 VND per kg, reflecting a cautious but steady market as global prices remain elevated.
On the same day, major global coffee exchanges, including ICE New York (arabica) and ICE London (robusta), are scheduled to open the first trading session of the week at around 4:00 p.m. Vietnam time.
At the close of last week’s trading, robusta coffee futures for March 2026 on ICE London stood at USD 3,954 per tonne, while arabica futures for March 2026 on ICE New York settled at 357.30 US cents per pound, equivalent to approximately USD 7,877 per tonne.
Converted into Vietnamese dong at the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,264 VND, the March 2026 robusta futures price is equivalent to about 103,800 VND per kg. Compared with the domestic average price of 98,500 VND per kg, Vietnam’s internal robusta prices are currently lower by around 5,300 VND per kg, or roughly USD 201 per tonne, than the corresponding London futures price.
The robusta market is widely expected to maintain a positive tone in the first trading session of the week, supported by several key factors, including currency movements, global supply concerns, and a cautious selling stance among producers.
Following a modest gain on January 2, March 2026 robusta futures on ICE London have stabilized near multi-week highs. The main driver has been the strengthening of the Brazilian real, which recently rose to a two-week high against the US dollar. A stronger real reduces the incentive for Brazilian producers to sell aggressively into export markets, triggering short-covering activity in coffee futures and lending support to prices. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee exporter.
Supply-side concerns continue to underpin the market. In Indonesia, widespread flooding has severely affected coffee-growing regions, particularly in northern Sumatra. According to the Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industry Association, the country’s coffee exports in the 2025 - 2026 season could decline by as much as 15%. Indonesia is currently the world’s third-largest producer of robusta coffee, making any disruption there significant for global supply-demand balances.
Meanwhile, weather conditions in Brazil remain a source of concern. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-growing state, has been well below historical averages, potentially affecting coffee tree development and yields in the upcoming season. These conditions have reinforced investor caution and encouraged the maintenance of long positions in the market.
Another important supportive factor is the low level of ICE-monitored inventories. Although robusta stocks have shown a slight recovery in recent sessions, they remain near the lowest levels seen in several weeks, continuing to provide underlying price support.
According to Reuters, Vietnam is expected to remain the primary source of robusta supply for the global market until Indonesia’s secondary harvest begins in April. During this period, Vietnamese farmers are reportedly holding back sales in anticipation of higher prices, further tightening short-term supply and supporting the upward bias in robusta prices.
Based on these factors, analysts believe that in the January 5 trading session, ICE London robusta futures for March 2026 are likely to trade sideways at elevated levels or edge slightly higher compared with the previous session. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of approximately USD 3,950 - 4,050 per tonne, depending on movements in the Brazilian real and fresh news related to weather and global supply conditions.
NPK/ Vinagri News
No comments:
Post a Comment