VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic robusta coffee prices fell sharply by 1,000 VND/kg on January 8, 2026, as London futures continue to face downward pressure due to ample supply and rising inventories. The domestic market remains below international futures, highlighting continued selling pressure.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic robusta prices fell 1,000 VND/kg to 97,500 - 98,300 VND/kg.
> London March 2026 robusta futures closed at 3,939 USD/ton, down 1.70%.
> Domestic prices are ~5,300 VND/kg lower than London futures (~201 USD/ton).
> Pressure from high supply, strong exports, and rising ICE inventories.
> Market likely to trade in a narrow range with short-term downward trend.
Vietnamese robusta coffee prices dropped sharply on January 8, 2026, decreasing by 1,000 VND/kg to a range of 97,500 - 98,300 VND/kg.
On January 7, 2026, London robusta futures for March 2026 delivery closed at 3,939 USD/ton, down 1.70% (-68 USD/ton) from the previous session. Other contracts also posted declines, with the January 2026 contract down 1.88% (-78 USD/ton) at 4,079 USD/ton.
At the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,264.99 VND, the March 2026 robusta futures are equivalent to 103,400 VND/kg, about 5,300 VND/kg higher than the domestic average price of 98,100 VND/kg (roughly 201 USD/ton difference).
The downward trend in robusta futures is primarily driven by ample coffee supply from Vietnam, where exports reached 1.58 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.5 percent. Rising inventories monitored by ICE, which recently recovered to a five-week high of 4,278 lots, further reduce upward price pressure. Unlike arabica coffee in New York, which benefits from below-average rainfall in Brazil and a stronger Brazilian real, robusta prices are less influenced by these factors due to its predominantly Vietnamese origin.
From a technical perspective, the March 2026 robusta contract is expected to find short-term support between 3,920 and 3,930 USD per ton, while resistance is projected around 3,980 to 3,990 USD per ton. Overall, the robusta market is likely to trade within a narrow range, showing a downward bias, and short-term price gains are expected to be limited.
In summary, the domestic robusta market continues to lag behind international futures, pressured by strong exports and ample supply. Traders and investors should closely monitor Vietnam’s export trends and ICE inventory levels, as these factors are likely to shape market movements in the coming sessions.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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