VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell sharply on February 3, declining by VND 1,000 - 1,300 per kg to VND 99,400 - 100,000/kg, tracking continued weakness in ICE London robusta futures. The market remains under bearish pressure amid expectations of ample supply from Vietnam and negative technical signals, despite some medium- to long-term supportive factors.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices fell sharply to VND 99,400 - 100,000/kg on February 3
> ICE London robusta futures continued to decline, with May 2026 below USD 4,000/tonne
> Domestic prices trade at a discount of about VND 3,000/kg versus May 2026 futures
> Bearish pressure driven by rising Vietnamese exports and higher production forecasts
> Short-term outlook: weak to sideways, with downside risk toward USD 3,850/tonne
Vietnam’s domestic coffee market recorded a sharp decline on the morning of February 3, with prices across the Central Highlands dropping by VND 1,000 - 1,300 per kg from the previous session, settling in the range of VND 99,400 - 100,000/kg.
Overnight, ICE London robusta futures continued their downward trend. At the close of Monday’s session (February 2), the March 2026 robusta contract fell 2.04% (down USD 84) to USD 4,029 per tonne. Other nearby contracts also posted steep losses, with the May 2026 contract down 2.11% (USD 85) to USD 3,952 per tonne, while the July 2026 contract declined 1.73% (USD 68) to USD 3,869 per tonne.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, the May 2026 robusta contract is currently equivalent to around VND 102,800/kg, based on an exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,019.50. At an average domestic price of VND 99,800/kg, Vietnam’s robusta prices are now trading at a discount of roughly VND 3,000/kg compared with the May 2026 London futures, equivalent to about USD 115 per tonne.
Following the sharp sell-off on February 2, the May 2026 robusta contract has fallen below the key psychological support level of USD 4,000 per tonne, reinforcing the market’s short-term bearish trend. The decline reflects intensifying selling pressure as global supply prospects - particularly from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer and exporter of robusta - are expected to remain abundant in the 2025 - 2026 season.
Latest figures show Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 17.5% year on year to 1.58 million tonnes, while production in the 2025 - 2026 crop year is forecast to increase by around 6% to 1.76 million tonnes, equivalent to 29.4 million bags - the highest level in four years. The surge in supply from Vietnam remains the dominant bearish factor weighing directly on robusta prices in London.
In addition, ICE-monitored robusta inventories have rebounded to their highest level in two months, easing concerns about short-term supply tightness. From a technical perspective, market indicators continue to point lower, with trend-following selling still prevailing after the recent steep decline.
On the supportive side, the market continues to factor in weaker coffee exports from Brazil - particularly robusta - as well as medium - to long-term weather-related risks in the country. However, these elements have so far been insufficient to reverse the current downtrend, as market attention remains focused on Vietnam’s supply outlook.
Looking ahead to the February 3 trading session, ICE London robusta futures for May 2026 are expected to trade in the range of USD 3,900 - 4,000 per tonne, with the prevailing bias toward sideways-to-lower movement. Should technical selling intensify, prices could retreat further toward the USD 3,850 per tonne area before stronger buying support emerges.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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