VINAGRI News - Global coffee markets are expected to trade sideways in the first session of the week, with robusta prices likely to fluctuate within a narrow range as supply concerns support prices while a strong US dollar and ample supply outlook weigh on the market.
Summary:
> ICE coffee markets open around 15:15 - 16:00 (Vietnam time) on March 23
> July 2026 robusta closes at $3,568/ton; domestic prices slightly higher than futures
> Supply disruption risks via the Strait of Hormuz continue to support prices
> Tight robusta inventories help limit downside
> Strong US dollar and technical selling pressure weigh on the market
> Ample supply outlook from Brazil and Vietnam caps price gains
> Short-term outlook: sideways movement, slight corrective bias
On Monday (March 23), major global coffee exchanges, including ICE New York (arabica) and ICE London (robusta), are set to open the first trading session of the week at around 15:15 - 16:00 (Vietnam time).
At the close of last week’s session, robusta futures for July 2026 on ICE London stood at $3,568 per metric ton, while arabica futures for May 2026 on ICE New York reached 309.75 US cents per pound, equivalent to $6,828.81 per metric ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the July 2026 robusta contract is currently priced at approximately VND 93,900 per kilogram, based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,322 VND.
Meanwhile, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands edged up by VND 500/kg on the morning of March 23, reaching VND 92,900 - 94,100 per kilogram. At an average level of VND 94,000/kg, domestic robusta prices are currently about VND 100/kg higher than the London July futures contract, equivalent to roughly $3.80 per ton.
Heading into the March 23 session, the global coffee market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase. The July 2026 robusta contract on ICE London is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range after posting a modest gain in the previous session, without establishing a clear trend.
The primary support for the market continues to stem from concerns over global supply disruptions, particularly as shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain affected. These disruptions have driven up transportation, fuel, and insurance costs, increasing expenses for importers and roasters and thereby underpinning coffee prices.
In addition, tight robusta inventories monitored by ICE continue to provide support, reflecting constrained short-term supply. The strong rally in arabica prices in the previous session may also lend positive sentiment to the robusta market.
However, downside pressure remains evident and is likely to dominate in the short term. A stronger US dollar continues to weigh on commodities broadly, including coffee. Moreover, the recent pullback in robusta prices toward the end of the last session suggests that technical selling pressure remains significant following earlier gains.
Furthermore, the global supply outlook continues to cap price increases. Brazil is projected to achieve a record coffee crop in the 2026/27 season, while Vietnam’s coffee exports and production are also on the rise. At the same time, arabica inventories tracked by ICE have climbed to multi-month highs, further dampening market sentiment.
Amid these mixed factors, the July 2026 robusta contract is forecast to trade within the range of $3,520 - $3,620 per metric ton during the March 23 session. Intraday rallies may occur, but sustained upward momentum is unlikely, with the overall trend leaning toward consolidation and slight correction.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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