VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose slightly on March 25, tracking gains in global robusta futures. The market is expected to remain range-bound with a mild upward bias amid tight near-term supply and persistent long-term supply pressures.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices rose 500 - 600 VND/kg to 93,100 - 94,200 VND/kg.
> Robusta futures on ICE London increased, with the July 2026 contract at 3,581 USD/ton.
> Domestic prices remain slightly below international futures levels.
> Short-term supply tightness and logistics disruptions support prices.
> Strong global supply outlook and rising exports from Vietnam cap gains.
> Robusta July 2026 is expected to trade in the 3,560 - 3,620 USD/ton range.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rebounded modestly on the morning of March 25, increasing by 500 - 600 VND/kg to a range of 93,100 - 94,200 VND/kg across the Central Highlands.
The uptick followed gains in the global market, where robusta coffee futures closed higher on Tuesday (March 24). On the London exchange, the May 2026 robusta contract rose by 0.69% (+25 USD/ton) to 3,662 USD/ton. Other contracts also posted notable increases, with the March 2026 contract up 0.67% (+25 USD/ton) to 3,776 USD/ton, and the July 2026 contract rising 0.65% (+23 USD/ton) to 3,581 USD/ton.
Converted to Vietnamese currency, the July 2026 robusta contract is currently equivalent to around 94,300 VND/kg, based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,348.52 VND. With the domestic average price at approximately 94,100 VND/kg, local robusta prices are trading about 200 VND/kg lower than the London futures benchmark, equivalent to a discount of roughly 7.59 USD/ton.
Looking ahead, the global coffee market is expected to remain in a sideways trend with a slight upward bias during the March 25 trading session, as short-term supportive factors continue to influence prices despite ongoing long-term supply pressures.
The primary bullish driver is the continued withholding of supply by Brazilian farmers, which has tightened spot availability and supported futures prices. This comes alongside a decline in ICE-monitored robusta inventories, which have fallen to their lowest level in two months.
In addition, global shipping disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have increased freight, insurance, and fuel costs, thereby raising import costs and lending further support to coffee prices.
However, the upside potential remains limited by longer-term bearish factors. Global supply prospects are improving, with higher production expected in both Brazil and Vietnam. Notably, Vietnam’s coffee exports have been rising significantly, adding pressure to robusta prices on the international market.
Meanwhile, ICE-monitored arabica inventories have climbed to a six-month high, reinforcing cautious market sentiment and capping stronger price gains.
Based on these dynamics, the July 2026 robusta contract on ICE London is forecast to trade within a range of 3,560 - 3,620 USD/ton on March 25. Prices may retest the 3,600 USD/ton level if buying interest persists, although profit-taking and ample supply could trigger pullbacks toward lower support levels.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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