VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose slightly on March 17, while robusta futures in London showed modest gains. The market is being pulled between geopolitical supply concerns and mounting pressure from strong global supply and rising inventories.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices rose by VND 200/kg to VND 89,800 - 90,800/kg.
> Robusta May 2026 futures closed at USD 3,475/tonne (+0.58%).
> Domestic prices remain about VND 700/kg below London futures.
> Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz are supporting prices.
> Strong supply outlook from Brazil and Vietnam continues to weigh on the market.
> Robusta is expected to trade within the USD 3,450 - 3,520/tonne range in the short term
Domestic coffee prices tick higher
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices in the Central Highlands increased by VND 200/kg on the morning of March 17, reaching a range of VND 89,800 - 90,800/kg. With an average level of VND 90,600/kg, local robusta prices remain below the May 2026 futures contract on ICE Futures Europe by approximately VND 700/kg, equivalent to about USD 26.63 per tonne.
Robusta futures post modest gains
At the close of trading on Monday (March 16), robusta coffee futures for May 2026 delivery on the London exchange rose slightly to USD 3,475/tonne, up 0.58% (+USD 20/tonne) compared to the previous session. Other nearby contracts also recorded mild increases, with the March 2026 contract up 0.57% (+USD 20/tonne) to USD 3,554/tonne, and the July 2026 contract rising 0.68% (+USD 23/tonne) to USD 3,395/tonne.
Converted at the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,282, the May 2026 robusta futures price stands at approximately VND 91,300/kg.
Market driven by opposing forces
Heading into the March 17 session, the global coffee market continues to be influenced by a mix of supportive and bearish factors. Concerns over potential supply disruptions linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are underpinning market sentiment, as this key maritime corridor plays a vital role in global trade flows.
Rising transportation, insurance, and energy costs amid geopolitical risks have provided short-term support to coffee prices. In addition, a recent decline in Brazil’s coffee exports has reinforced expectations of tighter near-term supply.
However, fundamental pressures remain significant. Prospects of a record coffee crop in Brazil, combined with a sharp increase in exports from Vietnam - the world’s largest robusta producer - are raising concerns about oversupply in the upcoming season. Furthermore, certified coffee inventories monitored by ICE continue to rise, limiting the upside potential.
Outlook for March 17: Range-bound trading expected
Against this backdrop, robusta coffee futures for May 2026 on the London exchange are expected to trade within a narrow range, with a sideways and volatile pattern dominating. The projected price band is USD 3,450 - 3,520/tonne, reflecting a temporary balance between risk-driven buying and supply-side selling pressure.
If geopolitical tensions escalate further, particularly affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, prices could extend gains toward USD 3,520 - 3,580/tonne. Conversely, if the market refocuses on supply fundamentals such as rising inventories and strong production outlooks, prices may retreat to the USD 3,380 - 3,430/tonne range.
Short-term trend: Technical rebound, but limited upside
Overall, the short-term trend points to a technical rebound following the previous session’s gains. However, the upside is expected to remain constrained due to persistent supply pressure. Market movements in the March 17 session will likely depend heavily on geopolitical developments, energy price fluctuations, and speculative fund flows in the commodities market.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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