VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell sharply by 800 - 1,000 VND/kg on March 11, tracking losses in global markets after ICE London robusta futures dropped more than 2% in the previous session. Profit-taking, rising ICE inventories, and improving global supply prospects are weighing on prices, although weather risks in Brazil and geopolitical tensions could limit further declines.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices dropped 800 - 1,000 VND/kg on March 11 to 95,400 - 95,800 VND/kg.
> ICE London May 2026 robusta futures fell 2.09% to $3,692/ton.
> Domestic prices are currently about 1,200 VND/kg ($45.72/ton) below London futures.
> Rising ICE inventories and improved global supply prospects are pressuring prices.
> Weather risks in Brazil and geopolitical tensions could limit further declines.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices declined significantly on the morning of March 11, falling by 800 - 1,000 VND/kg to around 95,400 - 95,800 VND/kg across the Central Highlands.
The drop follows a sharp decline in global coffee markets in the previous session. At the close of trading on Tuesday (March 10), robusta coffee futures for May 2026 delivery on the ICE London exchange fell to $3,692 per metric ton, down 2.09% (-$79/ton) from the previous session. Other nearby contracts also recorded notable losses, with the March 2026 contract decreasing 2.06% (-$79/ton) to $3,751 per ton, while the July 2026 contract declined 1.96% (-$72/ton) to $3,596 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the May 2026 robusta contract is currently equivalent to about 96,900 VND/kg, based on the prevailing exchange rate of $1 = 26,248.99 VND.
With the domestic average price at around 95,700 VND/kg, Vietnam’s robusta coffee prices are currently about 1,200 VND/kg lower than the May 2026 futures price on the London exchange, equivalent to roughly $45.72 per ton.
After reversing lower in the March 10 session, the global coffee market is expected to remain cautious in the next trading session as investors reassess supply-demand fundamentals and broader macroeconomic factors. The sharp drop in the May 2026 robusta contract to $3,692 per ton was mainly driven by profit-taking after prices had rallied for about one and a half weeks.
Downward pressure could persist in the near term as coffee inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continue to recover. Arabica stocks have climbed to their highest level in about five months, while robusta inventories have also rebounded from a more than one-year low. The recovery in exchange stocks has eased concerns over short-term supply tightness.
In addition, improving global production prospects are also weighing on prices. Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab estimates that the country’s coffee production in 2026 could reach around 66.2 million bags, up more than 17% from the previous year. Meanwhile, Rabobank forecasts that global coffee production for the 2026/27 season could reach a record 180 million bags, roughly 8 million bags higher than the previous season.
Robusta supply is also facing pressure from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of the variety. Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first two months of 2026 increased significantly compared with the same period last year, while production for the 2025/26 crop year is expected to rise to the highest level in four years.
However, the market’s downside may be limited by several supportive factors. Brazil’s coffee exports in February fell notably year on year, suggesting that spot supplies remain relatively tight. In addition, rainfall in Minas Gerais - the largest arabica-growing region in Brazil - remains below historical averages, raising concerns about weather risks to production.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also remain an unpredictable factor for commodity markets. Any disruption to key shipping routes could increase logistics costs and affect the global coffee supply chain.
Against this backdrop, robusta futures for May 2026 on ICE London are expected to continue trading within a relatively narrow range on March 11 as the market balances supply pressures against external risks. Immediate support is seen around $3,650 - $3,670 per ton, while short-term resistance is expected near $3,730 - $3,760 per ton. If selling pressure persists, prices could test a lower support level around $3,600 per ton, while the emergence of technical buying could allow a modest recovery during the session.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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