VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rebounded sharply on March 5, rising by 1,000 - 1,300 VND/kg as global coffee futures posted modest gains. Despite the recovery, the market outlook remains mixed, with rising shipping costs offering support while expectations of abundant global supply continue to weigh on prices.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices rose 1,000 - 1,300 VND/kg to 95,600 - 96,100 VND/kg on March 5.
> May 2026 robusta futures in London closed at $3,734/ton, up 0.78%.
> Domestic robusta prices remain about 1,900 VND/kg below London futures.
> Rising shipping costs due to Middle East tensions are providing short-term support.
> However, strong production prospects in Brazil and Vietnam and recovering ICE inventories continue to pressure prices.
> Robusta May futures are expected to trade between $3,700 and $3,780 per ton in the near term.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices surged on the morning of March 5, rising by 1,000 - 1,300 VND/kg to 95,600 - 96,100 VND/kg across the Central Highlands, reflecting the rebound seen in the global coffee futures market.
At the close of trading on Wednesday (March 4), Robusta coffee futures for May 2026 delivery on the London ICE exchange edged higher to $3,734 per ton, up 0.78% (+$29) compared with the previous session. Other nearby contracts also posted modest gains, with the March 2026 contract rising 0.77% (+$29) to $3,789 per ton, while the July 2026 contract increased 0.77% (+$28) to $3,652 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the May 2026 robusta futures price currently stands at around 97,900 VND/kg, based on the exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,220 VND.
Meanwhile, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands increased sharply on March 5, reaching 95,600 - 96,100 VND/kg.
With an average domestic price of 96,000 VND/kg, Vietnamese robusta currently trades about 1,900 VND/kg below the May 2026 London futures price, equivalent to a discount of approximately $72.46 per ton.
Looking ahead, the global coffee market is expected to remain range-bound in the March 5 trading session, as supportive and bearish factors continue to coexist.
For robusta, the May 2026 contract on the London ICE exchange is projected to fluctuate between $3,700 and $3,780 per ton. Following the previous session’s recovery, the market may see mild gains early in the session driven by technical buying. However, further upside could be limited as underlying fundamentals still point toward ample supply.
One supportive factor is the risk of global shipping disruptions, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have affected traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has pushed up global shipping rates, insurance premiums, and fuel costs, increasing expenses for coffee importers and roasters.
At the same time, short-term supply from some major producing countries shows signs of tightening. Brazil’s coffee exports in January dropped sharply year-on-year, while Colombia - the world’s second-largest arabica producer - also reported a significant decline in January output.
Nevertheless, the medium- and long-term supply outlook continues to exert pressure on the market. Brazil is expected to produce a record coffee crop in the 2026 season, while Vietnam - the world’s largest robusta producer - could also see production rise in the 2025 - 2026 crop year. In addition, several international analysts forecast that global coffee production in the 2026 - 2027 season may reach a record high, easing concerns about supply shortages.
Another factor weighing on prices is the recovery of coffee inventories monitored by ICE, indicating that physical supply in the market is gradually improving.
Under these conditions, the market is likely to continue trading within a narrow range. If technical buying persists, the May robusta contract may test the resistance zone of $3,760 - $3,780 per ton. Conversely, if selling pressure returns, prices could retreat toward the support range of $3,700 - $3,710 per ton.
Overall, the coffee market may continue to experience short-term technical rebounds, but the broader trend remains influenced by expectations of ample global supply in upcoming crop cycles.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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