VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices continued to climb on March 20, rising by another VND 800 - 1,000 per kilogram to VND 92,400 - 93,600/kg across the Central Highlands. The market remained supported by strong gains in London robusta futures, tightening ICE-certified robusta inventories, and ongoing concerns over global shipping disruptions, although abundant supply prospects from Brazil and Vietnam may limit further upside.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose by VND 800 - 1,000/kg on March 20 to VND 92,400 - 93,600/kg.
> London May 2026 robusta futures closed at USD 3,669/ton, up 2.51% from the previous session.
> Domestic robusta prices remain about VND 3,000/kg below London futures.
> Low ICE-certified robusta inventories and shipping disruptions continue to support prices.
> Large crop prospects in Brazil and rising Vietnamese supply may limit further gains.
> Robusta is expected to trade in a USD 3,630 - 3,720/ton range in the short term.
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam extended their upward move on the morning of March 20, increasing by another VND 800 - 1,000 per kilogram to VND 92,400 - 93,600/kg in the Central Highlands.
At the close of trading on Thursday, March 19, London robusta coffee futures for May 2026 delivery rose further to USD 3,669 per metric ton, up 2.51% or USD 90 per ton from the previous session. Other nearby contracts also posted strong gains, with the March 2026 contract rising 2.44% or USD 90 per ton to USD 3,783 per ton, while the July 2026 contract advanced 1.75% or USD 61 per ton to USD 3,542 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, the May 2026 robusta futures price currently stands at around VND 96,500/kg, based on the prevailing exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 26,312.
With the domestic robusta price averaging VND 93,500/kg, Vietnam’s physical coffee market is currently trading about VND 3,000/kg below the May 2026 London robusta contract, equivalent to a discount of roughly USD 114.02 per ton.
Entering the March 20 trading session, May 2026 robusta futures on ICE London are expected to continue fluctuating with a positive bias after rising sharply by USD 90, or 2.51%, to USD 3,669 per ton in the previous session. Current market dynamics indicate that robusta remains supported by several short-term bullish factors, especially the risk of global shipping disruptions and the continued decline in ICE-certified robusta inventories.
The main source of support continues to come from geopolitical tensions that have heightened the risk of disruptions in international logistics. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up freight, insurance, and fuel costs, thereby lifting the overall cost base for coffee importers and roasters. In this context, coffee prices are still drawing support from concerns that the physical flow of supply could be affected, especially in markets heavily dependent on maritime transport.
For robusta specifically, an additional supportive factor is the decline in ICE-monitored certified inventories to 4,285 lots, the lowest level in two months. The low inventory level suggests that exchange-available supply remains relatively tight, encouraging short-covering activity and helping prices hold at elevated levels.
However, the upside potential for robusta may not remain entirely smooth. After the strong rally on March 19, the likelihood of profit-taking is relatively high, especially as the market has approached important psychological resistance levels. In addition, the outlook for abundant global supply continues to cap further gains. Brazil is forecast to have a very large 2026/27 coffee crop, while Vietnam’s coffee exports have risen sharply and its 2025/26 production is also projected to reach the highest level in four years. These factors could make buyers more cautious during any fresh upward move.
Given the current balance of factors, May 2026 robusta futures on March 20 are likely to follow a scenario of either modest gains or sideways movement at high levels. The expected trading range is around USD 3,630 - 3,720 per ton. If buying interest continues to be supported by low inventories and unresolved logistics concerns, prices could test the USD 3,700 - 3,720 per ton zone again. On the other hand, if profit-taking intensifies or the market shifts its focus back to abundant supply prospects, robusta could correct toward the USD 3,630 - 3,650 per ton area in search of a new balance.
Overall, the short-term outlook for robusta in the March 20 session remains tilted to the upside, although volatility may increase due to the interaction between near-term support factors and medium-term supply pressure. The main scenario remains that prices hold above USD 3,630 per ton, while the USD 3,700 - 3,720 per ton range will be a key test for bullish momentum.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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