VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices edged slightly higher on October 29, while global Robusta futures are expected to trade sideways amid mixed supply and weather signals. Improved rainfall in Brazil and stronger exports from Vietnam continue to pressure prices, despite low ICE inventories providing short-term support.
Summary:
> Domestic prices rise slightly to 114,600 - 115,800 VND/kg.
> January 2026 Robusta futures at 4,465 USD/ton (≈117,500 VND/kg).
> Market pressured by rising Vietnam supply and improved Brazil rainfall.
> Support from low ICE stocks and short-term demand stability.
> Price forecast: sideways trend within 4,430 - 4,490 USD/ton.
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam rose modestly on Tuesday (October 29), increasing by 100 - 300 VND/kg to reach 114,600 - 115,800 VND/kg.
At the close of trading on Tuesday (October 28), London Robusta coffee futures for November 2025 delivery slipped slightly by 0.01% (-1 USD) to 4,436 USD/ton, while the January 2026 contract edged up 0.34% (+15 USD) to 4,465 USD/ton.
Converted to Vietnamese currency, the January 2026 Robusta contract equals approximately 117,500 VND/kg, based on an exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,330 VND. With the domestic average price at 115,700 VND/kg, local Robusta remains 1,800 VND/kg (≈68 USD/ton) below the futures price.
Both supportive and bearish factors are shaping the market. On the supportive side, low ICE-certified stock levels are helping to stabilize prices in the short term. However, better rainfall forecasts in Brazil and rising Robusta supply from Vietnam are likely to weigh on the market.
Market sentiment was further affected by news that President Trump suggested coffee may be added to tariff-exempt commodities under a potential deal with Vietnam. Additionally, upcoming U.S.-Brazil trade discussions have raised expectations of increased coffee supply to the U.S., another bearish signal for Robusta.
Recent analyses from Bloomberg and other market observers highlight Vietnam’s increasing output and exports, adding to global supply pressure.
Should rainfall in Brazil continue improving, it could further ease drought-related risks and suppress prices. On the other hand, uneven precipitation or persistent La Niña dryness could support a rebound. Current projections, however, point toward stable-to-slightly-lower movement.
Although low ICE inventories have previously supported prices, this effect may weaken as trade liberalization efforts between the U.S., Brazil, and Vietnam potentially open supply channels further.
Forecast: Robusta coffee futures for January 2026 on the London exchange are expected to trade sideways within 4,430 - 4,490 USD/ton on October 29.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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