VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange edged lower at the start of the week as the November 2025 contract neared delivery. Prices were pressured by technical rollovers and ample global supply, though limited certified stocks helped prevent a deeper decline.
Summary:
> November 2025 Robusta contract fell 0.78% to 4,516 USD/ton; January 2026 down 0.30% to 4,464 USD/ton.
> Domestic prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands held steady at 113,800 - 114,500 VND/kg.
> Local Robusta remains about 175 USD/ton cheaper than London futures.
> As delivery approaches (Nov 28), speculative rollovers are weighing on prices.
> Global supply improving, led by Vietnam and Brazil, limits bullish momentum.
> ICE-certified stocks fell to a 3-month low of 6,160 lots, providing slight support.
> Expected trading range: 4,500 - 4,550 USD/ton, with a likely close around 4,525 USD/ton on Oct 21.
At the close of trading on Monday (October 20), ICE Europe Robusta coffee futures extended their slight decline. The November 2025 contract fell by 0.78% (-36 USD) to 4,516 USD/ton, while the January 2026 contract slipped by 0.30% (-14 USD) to 4,464 USD/ton.
Converted to Vietnamese currency, the November 2025 Robusta contract was valued at approximately 118,900 VND/kg, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,346.50 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic Robusta prices on October 21 were largely unchanged, ranging between 113,800 and 114,500 VND/kg. With an average price of 114,300 VND/kg, local Robusta remained about 4,600 VND/kg (roughly 175 USD/ton) lower than the London November futures contract.
As the November 2025 Robusta contract approaches its delivery date (November 28, 2025), market behavior is increasingly driven by technical and financial factors. Speculators and investment funds - those without interest in physical delivery - typically close or roll over their positions to the January 2026 contract, generating temporary selling pressure. This often leads to sideways or slightly weaker prices for the expiring contract, while the forward month remains relatively steady.
Meanwhile, exporters and roasters begin ramping up physical purchases ahead of the delivery period, contributing to short-term price fluctuations. However, with ample supply from major producers such as Vietnam and Brazil, physical demand is unlikely to create strong upward momentum in the near term.
Overall, from now until late November, the November 2025 Robusta contract is expected to trade within a narrow range, with a mild downside bias, before market focus transitions to the January 2026 contract, which will set the tone for the upcoming crop year.
Market sources indicate that global Robusta output is projected to rise, as favorable weather and expanded cultivation in several producing countries improve supply prospects.
Nevertheless, ICE-certified coffee stocks have continued to decline, with Robusta inventories falling to their lowest level in three months - just 6,160 lots. This tightening stock situation is providing some support to prices.
Forecast: The November 2025 Robusta contract is expected to fluctuate between 4,500 and 4,550 USD/ton, with prices likely hovering near 4,525 USD/ton by the close of trading on October 21.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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