VINAGRI News - Following India’s removal of its rice export restrictions, Vietnam’s export prices have dropped to a 10-year low. However, retail prices in the domestic market remain stubbornly high due to long supply chains, old contracts, and rising operating costs.
The price of rice at a store on Le Duc Tho Street, An Hoi Dong Ward (HCMC), has consistently remained high over the past year. Photo: Thi Ha/ vnexpress
Summary:
> Vietnam’s 5% broken rice price dropped to USD 368/ton - the lowest in a decade.
> Export orders declined 30 - 35% amid global oversupply.
> India’s record rice reserves and the Philippines’ import suspension weigh on prices.
> Domestic paddy prices down 15 - 20%, but retail prices remain high.
One year after India lifted its export restrictions, Vietnam’s rice export prices have tumbled sharply, yet domestic consumers continue to pay some of the highest retail prices in years, according vnexpress.
During 2023 - 2024, Vietnam was among the biggest beneficiaries of India’s export ban, which sent global rice prices soaring. Vietnam’s rice exports reached a record 9 million tons last year. However, since India ended its ban in September 2024, global supplies have surged, driving export prices down.
According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), as of October 22, the price of Vietnam’s 5% broken rice fell to USD 368 per ton, down 35% year-on-year - the lowest in a decade. Similarly, Thailand’s comparable variety dropped to USD 333 per ton, its lowest since October 2007.
Vietnamese exporters are now facing mounting pressure from global oversupply. Nguyen Chi Thanh, Director of the Rice Division at Angimex, said that export orders have fallen by about 30% compared to last year. “Abundant supply and high inventories across major markets make it difficult for Vietnamese rice to stay competitive,” he noted.
A Dong Thap-based exporter also confirmed that most contracts to the Philippines - Vietnam’s largest rice buyer - have been suspended. “Our fourth-quarter orders are down nearly 35% year-on-year,” the representative said.
The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts that global rice production for 2025 - 2026 will reach a record 727 million tons, up 1.5% from the previous season, while ending stocks are expected to rise 4.7% to 183 million tons, indicating a clear supply surplus.
India remains the dominant force, accounting for nearly 40% of global rice exports. The country’s 2025 harvest is projected at 145 million tons, up 7% year-on-year. Data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI) shows national rice reserves at a record 48.2 million tons as of September 1 - up more than 14% from last year - adding further downward pressure on global prices.
At the same time, import demand is weakening. The Philippines, the world’s largest rice importer, has suspended imports since September 1 to protect domestic farmers during harvest season. If this measure extends into 2026, the global market could lose a key source of demand for several months.
In Vietnam, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment shows that in the first nine months of 2025, rice exports reached 7 million tons, earning USD 3.55 billion - up 0.1% in volume but down 18.5% in value due to lower average export prices.
Domestically, paddy and finished rice prices have dropped sharply across the Mekong Delta. According to the An Giang Department of Agriculture and Environment, IR50404 paddy is currently sold at VND 7,700 - 8,000/kg, down VND 2,500 - 2,800 from a year ago. Finished rice of the same type trades at VND 9,500 - 9,700/kg, down nearly VND 3,000. Popular varieties such as OM18, OM380, and OM5451 have fallen 15 - 20%, while common glutinous rice now fetches just VND 9,000 - 10,000/kg, more than halved from last year.
Despite the decline in wholesale prices, retail rice prices remain high. In Ho Chi Minh City, premium fragrant varieties such as Jasmine, Huong Lai, Nang Hoa, Soc Thai, Taiwanese, and Japanese rice sell for VND 18,000 - 22,000/kg; regular long-grain rice for VND 17,000/kg; Nang Nhen for VND 28,000/kg; and glutinous rice for VND 21,000 - 22,000/kg. Organic ST25 rice continues to command VND 50,000 - 60,000/kg.
Distributors say the gap between wholesale and retail prices is not due to speculation, but rather lag effects in the supply chain and high operating costs.
According to Mrs. Hanh, a rice shop owner in Ho Chi Minh City’s An Hoi Dong Ward, “Wholesale prices have fallen only slightly. Major suppliers are still delivering under old contracts, and logistics, storage, and spoilage costs haven’t decreased, leaving little room to lower retail prices.”
A distributor in Tan Binh District added that the rice supply chain involves multiple stages - from farmers to milling, packaging, and distribution. “While input costs fell quickly, inventory - especially pre-packaged rice - must still be sold under existing contracts. Meanwhile, logistics and warehouse rental costs are up 10 - 15% from last year, making price cuts nearly impossible,” he said.
Supermarkets also confirmed that retail prices are hard to reduce because most supply contracts are long-term, lasting 6 to 12 months. Mid- and high-end rice segments, which dominate modern retail channels, tend to fluctuate less with changes in raw material prices.
Producers expect domestic demand to rise sharply toward the end of the year due to the holiday and Lunar New Year season. Retailers have already begun stockpiling rice to prepare for peak consumption. This seasonal factor is expected to keep retail rice prices high, even as export and farmgate prices continue to fall.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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