VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee prices on the ICE London exchange continued to fall on December 2, with March 2026 futures down to $4,219 per ton, equivalent to 111,300 VND/kg. Domestic prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands also declined, averaging 105,400 VND/kg, creating a price gap of roughly 5,900 VND/kg compared to futures. Falling ICE inventories support prices, but a one-year delay of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and ample global supply continue to exert downward pressure. Analysts expect a further 1 - 2% decline in March 2026 robusta futures on December 3.
Summary:
> March 2026 ICE London robusta futures: $4,219/ton (-2.73%)
> Vietnam Central Highlands average price: 105,400 VND/kg, 5,900 VND/kg below March futures
> ICE robusta stocks at lowest level in 11 months (4,120 lots)
> EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) delayed by one year, continued imports support supply
> Market trend: further short-term decline expected, with March futures likely to test 4,160 - 4,200 USD/ton
Robusta coffee prices on the ICE London exchange remained under pressure on Tuesday, December 2. March 2026 futures dropped sharply to $4,219 per ton, down 2.73% (-$119/ton) from the previous session. Other contracts also fell, with January 2026 futures down 2.70% (-$121/ton) to $4,351 per ton. Converted to Vietnamese Dong at the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,380 VND, March 2026 futures are trading at approximately 111,300 VND/kg.
Domestic robusta prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands continued to fall, losing an additional 1,500 - 2,000 VND/kg to reach 104,500 - 105,600 VND/kg. With an average of 105,400 VND/kg, domestic prices are about 5,900 VND/kg lower than March 2026 futures, equivalent to a gap of roughly 224 USD/ton.
Falling ICE inventories remain a key market support. U.S. import tariffs on Brazilian coffee have led American buyers to cancel new orders, resulting in ICE-monitored arabica stocks dropping to 398,645 bags as of November 20, the lowest in 1.75 years. Robusta stocks fell to 4,120 lots on Tuesday, marking the lowest level in 11 months.
Downward pressure on both New York and London exchanges emerged after the European Parliament approved a one-year delay for the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Originally aimed at limiting imports of commodities linked to deforestation, including coffee, cocoa, and soy, the postponement allows EU countries to continue importing from regions in Africa, Indonesia, and South America, sustaining global coffee supply and keeping short-term prices under pressure.
Current weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam are expected to negatively impact the upcoming coffee season. However, this factor has not yet been strong enough to halt the recent short-term price decline.
Given the sharp two-day drop, the market has technically breached key support levels. Coupled with the EUDR delay maintaining robust EU imports and cautious buyer sentiment after the recent decline, analysts anticipate that ICE London robusta futures for March 2026 may fall another 1 - 2% on December 3, potentially reaching the 4,160 - 4,200 USD/ton range.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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