VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee futures on the ICE London exchange fell on Thursday as global oversupply from major producers continued to weigh on the market, despite supportive signals from shrinking ICE inventories and the latest U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut. Domestic prices in Vietnam also edged lower, widening the gap with international futures.
Summary:
> March 2026 robusta futures fell to $4,107/ton, down $31.
> Vietnamese domestic prices dropped 600 - 800 VND/kg, averaging 101,000 VND/kg.
> Price gap between London futures and Vietnam widened to 7,000 VND/kg.
> ICE inventories for both arabica and robusta remain tight.
> Fed cut rates by 25 bps, but oversupply limits price impact.
> Robusta March 2026 futures expected to move sideways to slightly lower at $4,060 - $4,120/ton.
Robusta coffee prices retreated on Thursday (December 11), with the ICE London March 2026 futures contract closing lower at $4,107/ton, a decline of 0.75% (-$31/ton) from the previous session. Other nearby contracts also weakened, with the January 2026 contract down 0.36% (-$15/ton) to $4,206/ton.
Converted to Vietnamese currency, the March 2026 robusta futures price stands at approximately 108,000 VND/kg, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,311.50 VND.
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic robusta prices fell by 600 - 800 VND/kg on the morning of December 12, settling in the range of 100,500 - 101,300 VND/kg. With an average domestic price of 101,000 VND/kg, Vietnamese robusta currently trades about 7,000 VND/kg lower than the London March 2026 futures equivalent - equivalent to a discount of roughly $266/ton.
Tightening ICE coffee inventories continue to lend support to prices. ICE-monitored arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20 before rebounding to a one-month high of 426,523 bags last Friday. ICE robusta inventories dropped to an 11.5-month low of 4,012 lots on Wednesday.
In the early hours of December 11 (Vietnam time), the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its federal funds rate by 25 basis points, lowering the target range to 3.5% - 3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut in four months and the fifth reduction since the easing cycle began in September last year.
However, the latest Fed rate cut is not expected to significantly influence robusta prices in the near term, as global oversupply remains the dominant market force, overshadowing supportive macroeconomic factors.
Robusta futures for March 2026 on ICE London are expected to move sideways or edge slightly lower during the December 12 session, trading within the $4,060 - $4,120/ton range.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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