VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell sharply on February 11, tracking steep declines in London robusta futures, as improved weather conditions in Brazil and expectations of stronger global supply for the 2026 season continued to weigh on market sentiment.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices fell VND 1,000 - 1,200/kg to VND 94,100 - 95,600/kg on Feb 11
> London robusta May 2026 futures dropped 2.31% to USD 3,683/tonne
> Converted futures price stands at around VND 95,500/kg, slightly above domestic levels
> Robusta May 2026 is forecast to trade near USD 3,620/tonne in the short term
> Improved weather in Brazil and strong Vietnamese supply continue to pressure prices
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam fell by VND 1,000 - 1,200 per kg on Tuesday (February 11), sliding to a range of VND 94,100 - 95,600 per kg, according to market sources. The average domestic robusta price stood at VND 95,400 per kg, reflecting growing pressure from declining international futures.
On the international market, London robusta futures closed sharply lower on Tuesday (February 10). The May 2026 robusta contract on ICE London dropped 2.31% (-USD 87/tonne) to USD 3,683 per tonne. Other nearby contracts also posted significant losses, with the March 2026 contract falling 2.37% (-USD 91/tonne) to USD 3,743 per tonne, while the July 2026 contract declined 2.34% (-USD 86/tonne) to USD 3,592 per tonne.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the May 2026 robusta futures price is currently equivalent to approximately VND 95,500 per kg, based on an exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 25,943.50.
At this level, Vietnam’s average domestic robusta price is about VND 100 per kg lower than the London May 2026 futures price, corresponding to a discount of roughly USD 3.85 per tonne.
Looking ahead, coffee prices on international futures exchanges are expected to remain under short-term pressure, as markets increasingly price in expectations of improved global supply in the 2026 season. Increased rainfall across key coffee-growing regions in Brazil has eased concerns over weather-related risks, reinforcing expectations of a large crop from the world’s top coffee producer.
On ICE London, the May 2026 robusta contract is forecast to trade within a range of USD 3,600 - 3,700 per tonne during the February 11 session, with a reference price around USD 3,620 per tonne, representing a further decline of about 1.7% from the previous close. Downward pressure is largely driven by abundant robusta supply from Vietnam, as exports surged year-on-year in January and production for the 2025 - 2026 season is projected to reach its highest level in four years.
While ICE-monitored coffee inventories remain low by historical standards and declining output in Colombia offers some price support, these factors have so far been insufficient to reverse the short-term bearish trend. Analysts note that the market remains highly sensitive to weather developments in Brazil, although higher production forecasts from Brazil’s crop agency Conab are expected to cap any strong price recovery unless new adverse supply shocks emerge.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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