VINAGRI News - Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam rebounded sharply on February 9, rising by VND 1,000/kg, even as global robusta futures are expected to remain under pressure amid abundant supply and rising inventories.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose VND 1,000/kg on February 9 to VND 94,700 - 96,100/kg.
> Domestic robusta prices are trading at a premium of about USD 31/ton over ICE London May 2026 futures.
> May 2026 robusta futures closed last week at USD 3,668/ton, down 2.16%.
> Global prices remain pressured by strong supply from Brazil and Vietnam and recovering ICE inventories.
> Robusta prices on February 9 are forecast to trade around USD 3,600 - 3,650/ton, with a bearish to sideways bias.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices surged strongly on Monday, February 9, increasing by VND 1,000 per kilogram to a range of VND 94,700 - 96,100/kg, according to market observations in the Central Highlands.
On the same day, major global coffee exchanges, including ICE New York (arabica) and ICE London (robusta), are scheduled to open the first trading session of the week at around 4:00 p.m. Vietnam time.
At the close of the previous week’s trading session, robusta futures for May 2026 on ICE London stood at USD 3,668 per ton, while arabica futures for May 2026 on ICE New York settled at 289.30 US cents per pound, equivalent to approximately USD 6,378 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, May 2026 robusta futures are currently valued at around VND 95,100/kg, based on the prevailing exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 25,939.
In the Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices this morning rebounded sharply by VND 1,000/kg, reaching VND 94,700 - 96,100/kg. At an average level of VND 95,900/kg, Vietnam’s domestic robusta prices are now VND 800/kg higher than May 2026 futures on ICE London, equivalent to a premium of about USD 31 per ton.
Despite the rebound in domestic prices, the global robusta market remains under downward pressure. Following the sharp sell-off in the previous trading session on February 6, May 2026 robusta futures on ICE London are forecast to continue declining or moving sideways at low levels in the early-week session on February 9, as market fundamentals continue to favor supply.
By the end of last week, the May 2026 robusta contract closed at USD 3,668 per ton, down 2.16%. The decline reflects cautious market sentiment driven by signals of abundant global coffee supply, particularly from Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s two major producers.
In the near term, prices remain under pressure from Brazil’s forecast record coffee output for the 2026 season, alongside strong growth in Vietnam’s robusta exports, indicating increased availability on the global market. In addition, ICE-monitored coffee inventories have shown signs of recovery, further dampening bullish expectations.
Weather conditions are also weighing on prices, as above-average rainfall in Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions has improved crop prospects and eased concerns over supply risks in the medium term.
Given the current market backdrop, May 2026 robusta futures on ICE London are expected to trade within a range of USD 3,600 - 3,650 per ton during the February 9 session, with the dominant trend seen as slightly bearish to sideways, unless unexpected support emerges from weather disruptions, logistics issues, or sharp movements in global financial markets.
NPK/ Vinagri News
No comments:
Post a Comment