VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rebounded strongly on February 6, rising by 800 - 1,200 VND/kg, tracking a sharp recovery in ICE London robusta futures driven by short covering. However, the market remains under pressure from expectations of ample global supply, particularly from Brazil and Vietnam.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rebounded by 800 - 1,200 VND/kg on February 6, tracking a sharp recovery in ICE London robusta futures.
> May 2026 robusta futures surged to USD 3,749 per ton, driven mainly by short covering after Brazil’s January coffee exports fell more than 40% year-on-year.
> Domestic robusta prices remain discounted to London futures by around USD 54 per ton, reflecting cautious buying sentiment.
> The recent price recovery is largely technical, supported by speculative inflows after prices hit multi-month lows.
> Upside potential remains capped by expectations of record Brazilian coffee production in 2026 and rising robusta supply from Vietnam.
> Robusta prices are expected to trade within a volatile range, with resistance near USD 3,780 - 3,850 per ton and support around USD 3,650 - 3,700 per ton.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices increased notably on February 6, climbing by 800 to 1,200 VND/kg to a range of 94,700 - 96,100 VND/kg across the Central Highlands.
The rebound followed a strong recovery in global prices during Thursday’s session. At the close of trading on February 5, ICE London robusta coffee futures for May 2026 surged to USD 3,749 per metric ton, up 1.63% or USD 60 per ton from the previous session. Other nearby contracts also posted solid gains, with the March 2026 contract rising 1.62% to USD 3,822 per ton, while the July 2026 contract increased 1.41% to USD 3,668 per ton.
Converted into Vietnamese dong at the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 25,961 VND, the May 2026 robusta futures price stands at approximately 97,300 VND/kg.
With an average domestic price of around 95,900 VND/kg, Vietnam’s robusta coffee is currently trading about 1,400 VND/kg lower than the May 2026 London futures equivalent, corresponding to a discount of roughly USD 54 per metric ton.
Following the sharp rebound on February 5, robusta prices are showing signs of short-term stabilization as speculative funds re-enter the market. The recovery has been largely driven by short covering after data revealed that Brazil’s coffee exports in January plunged more than 40% year-on-year, raising short-term concerns over prompt supply availability.
In addition, prices had previously fallen to their lowest levels in nearly six months, triggering technical buying and helping the market move away from recent lows. Nevertheless, upside momentum remains capped by expectations of record coffee production in Brazil for the 2026 season, alongside rising robusta supply from Vietnam, where both exports and output are projected to increase in the new crop year.
Under these conditions, ICE London robusta futures for May 2026 are expected to trade within a range of USD 3,720 - 3,820 per ton during the February 6 session. If speculative buying remains supportive and no new bearish supply news emerges, prices could test higher resistance levels around USD 3,780 - 3,850 per ton. Conversely, stronger profit-taking or a firmer U.S. dollar could trigger a pullback toward the USD 3,650 - 3,700 per ton support zone.
Overall, the current rebound in robusta prices appears to be more technical in nature rather than signaling a clear trend reversal. In the short term, the market remains highly sensitive to supply-related news and speculative flows, while the medium-term outlook continues to face pressure from expectations of abundant global supply.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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