VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices continued to climb on February 10, rising by VND 500 - 600/kg to VND 95,300 - 96,600/kg, supported by a sharp rebound in London robusta futures. While short-term sentiment remains positive due to short-covering and currency movements, abundant global supply is expected to cap further gains.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose to VND 95,300 - 96,600/kg on February 10.
> London robusta futures rebounded strongly, with May 2026 up 2.78% to USD 3,770/tonne.
> Domestic prices remain about VND 1,100/kg below London futures.
> Short-covering and a stronger Brazilian real are supporting prices.
> Abundant global supply and rising ICE inventories may cap further gains.
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam extended their upward trend on February 10, increasing by VND 500 - 600 per kilogram to a range of VND 95,300 - 96,600/kg across the Central Highlands.
The price increase followed a strong rebound in London robusta futures. At the close of trading on Monday (February 9), the ICE London robusta contract for May 2026 surged 2.78% (+USD 102/tonne) to USD 3,770/tonne. Other nearby contracts also posted solid gains, with the March 2026 contract rising 2.10% (+USD 79/tonne) to USD 3,834/tonne, while the July 2026 contract climbed 2.54% (+USD 91/tonne) to USD 3,678/tonne.
Converted into Vietnamese currency at the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 25,882.5, the May 2026 robusta contract is equivalent to approximately VND 97,500/kg.
With an average domestic price of around VND 96,400/kg, Vietnam’s robusta coffee is currently trading at a discount of about VND 1,100/kg (roughly USD 42/tonne) compared with the May 2026 London futures price.
According to technical and fundamental analysis, robusta prices for the May 2026 contract are likely to move sideways or edge slightly higher in the February 10 session, following the sharp rally in the previous session. The main drivers include short-covering by speculative funds, combined with a stronger Brazilian real, which has reached a one-week high against the US dollar, reducing selling pressure from Brazilian exporters.
Market sentiment has also been supported by a sharp decline in Brazil’s coffee exports in January, along with reduced arabica supplies from Colombia. These factors have helped robusta prices recover significantly from their lowest levels in nearly six months.
However, the global supply outlook continues to limit upside potential. Forecasts indicate Brazil’s coffee output in the 2026 season could rise to a record level, while Vietnam’s production and exports are also expected to remain strong, keeping global robusta supplies relatively ample. In addition, ICE-monitored coffee inventories have been trending higher, adding further pressure to prices.
Against this backdrop, the market is expected to enter a short-term consolidation phase. Robusta futures for May 2026 are projected to trade within a range of USD 3,740 - 3,820/tonne during the February 10 session. A strong breakout above key resistance levels appears unlikely without fresh bullish catalysts, while technical corrections may emerge due to profit-taking after the recent sharp rally.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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