VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose slightly by 100 - 300 VND/kg on February 12 to 94,400 - 95,700 VND/kg, tracking modest gains in London robusta futures. While a stronger Brazilian real has supported short covering, global supply pressures from Brazil and Vietnam are expected to keep prices moving within a narrow range.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices rose to 94,400 - 95,700 VND/kg on February 12.
> London May 2026 robusta closed at $3,692/ton.
> Domestic prices remain about 300 VND/kg below London futures.
> Stronger Brazilian real supports short-term recovery.
> Record Brazilian crop and rising Vietnamese exports continue to weigh on prices.
> Near-term forecast range: $3,660 - $3,720 per ton.
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices increased modestly on the morning of February 12, rising by 100 - 300 VND/kg to a range of 94,400 - 95,700 VND/kg across the Central Highlands.
The rebound followed firmer movements on the London exchange. At the close of trading on Wednesday (February 11), ICE London robusta futures for May 2026 settled at $3,692 per metric ton, up 0.24% (+$9/ton) from the previous session. Nearby contracts also posted gains, with March 2026 rising 0.43% (+$16/ton) to $3,759/ton, and July 2026 advancing 0.25% (+$9/ton) to $3,601/ton.
Converted at the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 25,962.50 VND, the May 2026 robusta contract is equivalent to approximately 95,800 VND/kg.
With the domestic average price at around 95,500 VND/kg, Vietnam’s robusta market is currently trading about 300 VND/kg lower than the London May 2026 futures price, equivalent to roughly $11.5 per ton below the international benchmark.
The recent uptick in global prices was supported by short covering after the Brazilian real strengthened to a 1.5-week high, discouraging export selling from Brazil. However, the robusta market is expected to enter a short-term consolidation phase.
The May 2026 robusta contract on ICE London closed at $3,692/ton. In the absence of new weather disruptions or supply shocks, prices are likely to fluctuate within a relatively narrow range near current levels.
Supportive factors include:
𑇐 A stronger Brazilian real, reducing export pressure from Brazil.
𑇐 Speculative position adjustments following recent price declines.
Nevertheless, fundamental pressures remain tilted to the downside:
𑇐 Brazil is forecast to harvest a record coffee crop in the 2026 season.
𑇐 Vietnam’s coffee exports have surged, reinforcing global robusta supply.
𑇐 ICE-monitored inventories have rebounded from earlier lows.
Under current conditions, the most probable scenario is for May 2026 robusta futures to trade within a range of $3,660 - $3,720 per ton, with a central level around $3,690 per ton.
If selling pressure intensifies, prices could retreat toward $3,600 - $3,630 per ton. Conversely, if the Brazilian real continues to strengthen and additional short covering emerges, prices may test the $3,750 per ton level. However, a sustained breakout above $3,800 per ton appears unlikely without fresh bullish catalysts.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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