VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices increased slightly by 200 - 300 VND/kg on March 6, reaching 95,900 - 96,300 VND/kg. Meanwhile, global coffee markets remain supported by supply concerns from Brazil, although expectations of higher global production and rising inventories are limiting further gains.
Summary:
> Vietnam domestic coffee prices rose 200 - 300 VND/kg on March 6 to 95,900 - 96,300 VND/kg.
> Robusta May 2026 futures on ICE London closed at $3,751/ton.
> Short-term price range expected at $3,720 - $3,800 per ton.
> Brazil export decline and shipping disruptions support prices.
> Higher global production forecasts and rising inventories continue to cap market gains.
Vietnam coffee prices edge higher on March 6 as supply concerns support market
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam increased slightly by 200 - 300 VND/kg on March 6, reaching around 95,900 - 96,300 VND/kg across key producing regions.
At the close of trading on Thursday (March 5), robusta coffee futures for May 2026 on the ICE London exchange rose slightly to $3,751 per metric ton, up 0.46% (+$17/ton) from the previous session.
Other nearby contracts also posted modest gains. The March 2026 contract increased 0.45% (+$17/ton) to $3,806/ton, while the July 2026 contract rose 0.30% (+$11/ton) to $3,663/ton.
Converted at the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,248.51 VND, the May 2026 robusta futures price is equivalent to approximately 98,400 VND/kg.
Coffee market expected to trade sideways
After the modest gains recorded on March 5, global coffee prices are expected to move within a narrow range during the March 6 session, as the market weighs mixed fundamental factors.
On the ICE London exchange, robusta coffee futures for May 2026 are currently trading near $3,751/ton. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate with key support around $3,700 - $3,720 per ton, while near-term resistance lies between $3,780 and $3,820 per ton.
Supply concerns provide support
Recent concerns over supply have offered support to coffee prices. Brazil’s Ministry of Commerce reported that the country’s coffee exports in February fell 17.4% year-on-year to 142,000 tons.
The decline helped push arabica coffee prices to a two-week high, providing additional support to the robusta market.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing global freight costs, insurance premiums, and fuel prices. Higher transportation costs could raise the expenses associated with importing and roasting coffee worldwide, indirectly supporting coffee prices.
Strong global supply outlook caps gains
However, further gains remain limited by expectations of ample global supply.
Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab projects that the country’s 2026 coffee production will rise 17.2% year-on-year to a record 66.2 million bags. Within this total, arabica output is expected to increase 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while robusta production may rise 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.
Similarly, Rabobank forecasts that global coffee production in the 2026 - 2027 season could reach a record 180 million bags, an increase of about 8 million bags compared with the previous season, adding pressure to prices in the medium term.
Rising Vietnamese supply pressures robusta
Increasing supply from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, is also weighing on the market.
According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the country’s coffee exports in January rose sharply by 38.3% year-on-year to 198,000 tons.
Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2025 - 2026 crop year is also projected to increase by about 6% to 1.76 million tons, the highest level in four years.
ICE coffee inventories recover
The recovery of coffee inventories on the ICE exchange is another bearish factor for the market.
Arabica stocks monitored by ICE had previously fallen to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18, but have since rebounded to a 4.75-month high of 532,249 bags on Thursday.
Similarly, robusta inventories dropped to a 14-month low of 4,012 lots on December 10, before climbing to a 3.25-month high of 4,721 lots on Tuesday.
Short-term price outlook
Given the mixed balance between supportive and bearish factors, robusta coffee futures for May 2026 on ICE London are likely to trade within the range of $3,720 - $3,800 per ton during the March 6 session.
If buying interest strengthens, prices could test the $3,820/ton resistance level. Conversely, if selling pressure increases, the market could retreat toward the $3,700/ton support level.
Market participants are closely monitoring Brazil’s crop development, export pace from major producing countries, fluctuations in the US dollar, and global shipping costs, all of which are expected to influence coffee price movements in the coming weeks.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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