VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices on the morning of March 19 rose by another VND400 - 500/kg to VND91,600 - 92,700/kg, following further gains in London robusta futures. At the close of trading on Wednesday, March 18, the May 2026 robusta contract on ICE London climbed 1.47% to $3,579/mt, while nearby contracts also posted strong increases. With domestic robusta prices still trading below the London May 2026 futures equivalent, the market is entering the March 19 session with a cautiously bullish tone, supported by tighter ICE-certified inventories and ongoing logistics risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz, though upside may be capped by expectations of abundant global supply from Brazil and Vietnam.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices on March 19 rose by VND400 - 500/kg to VND91,600 - 92,700/kg.
> ICE London May 2026 robusta closed March 18 at $3,579/mt, up 1.47% or $52/mt.
> The March 2026 contract rose to $3,693/mt, while July 2026 gained to $3,481/mt.
> The London May 2026 robusta contract is equivalent to about VND94,100/kg at the current exchange rate.
> Domestic robusta prices are about VND1,500/kg, or roughly $57/mt, below the London May futures equivalent.
> Lower ICE-certified robusta inventories, down to 4,348 lots, are supporting prices.
> Logistics risks around the Strait of Hormuz are also underpinning the market.
> Expectations of large coffee supplies from Brazil and Vietnam may limit further gains.
> The March 19 outlook for robusta is cautiously bullish but volatile.
> The expected trading range is around $3,550 - 3,620/mt, with $3,600 - 3,620/mt seen as a key resistance zone.
At the close of trading on Wednesday, March 18, robusta coffee for May 2026 delivery on the London exchange rose further to $3,579/mt, up 1.47% or $52/mt from the previous session. Other nearby contracts also posted strong gains, with the March 2026 contract up 1.43% or $52/mt to $3,693/mt, while the July 2026 contract increased 1.10% or $38/mt to $3,481/mt.
Converted into Vietnamese currency, the May 2026 robusta contract is currently equivalent to VND94,100/kg, based on the prevailing exchange rate of USD1 = VND26,315.
Meanwhile, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands on the morning of March 19 continued to rise by another VND400 - 500/kg, reaching VND91,600 - 92,700/kg.
At the average domestic price of VND92,600/kg, Vietnam’s robusta coffee is currently trading VND1,500/kg below the May 2026 futures price on the London market, equivalent to a discount of around $57/mt.
Heading into the March 19 session, the May 2026 robusta contract on ICE London is likely to maintain an upward-leaning trading pattern, although the pace of gains may be more cautious after closing the March 18 session at $3,579/mt, up $52/mt.
The main supportive factor for robusta remains the decline in ICE-monitored certified inventories to 4,348 lots, the lowest level in two months. This has encouraged short-covering activity and helped the market maintain firmness. In addition, the risk of global shipping disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz continues to lift freight, insurance and fuel costs, providing broader support to coffee prices.
However, the upside for robusta may be limited, as the market is still facing pressure from expectations of abundant global supplies. Brazil is forecast to harvest a very large 2026/27 coffee crop, while Vietnam’s coffee exports have risen sharply and the country’s 2025/26 coffee output is also expected to increase to the highest level in four years. These factors may cap robusta’s short-term gains.
Given the current balance of factors, the May 2026 robusta contract in the March 19 session is likely to follow a scenario of modest gains or sideways trading at elevated levels, with the market leaning toward retesting the $3,600/mt area. If buying interest remains supported by low inventories and concerns over logistics risks, prices could extend their advance. On the other hand, if the market shifts its focus back to the prospect of ample supply from Brazil and Vietnam, robusta could see a technical correction after the previous session’s strong rise.
Overall, the short-term outlook for robusta in the March 19 session remains positive but volatile, with an expected trading range of around $3,550 - 3,620/mt. The main scenario is for the market to stay supported above $3,550/mt, while the $3,600 - 3,620/mt zone will be a key test for buyers.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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