VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee prices are expected to rise slightly on October 20 as investors brace for potential weather disruptions caused by Tropical Storm Fengshen in Vietnam’s Central Highlands. Domestic prices remain steady, while futures on the London exchange may move within a range of USD 4,500 - 4,650 per ton.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices stay flat at VND 113,600 - 114,500/kg.
> London Robusta Nov 2025 closed last week at USD 4,552/ton.
> The average local price remains about USD 212.5/ton lower than London futures.
> ICE inventories for both Arabica and Robusta are at multi-month lows.
> Typhoon Fengshen is expected to bring heavy rains to Vietnam’s coffee belt, supporting short-term price gains.
> If the storm impact is mild, prices could retreat toward USD 4,500/ton.
> Overall outlook: Cautious optimism with a likely upward bias in today’s London trading session.
Coffee prices in Vietnam remained stable this morning (October 20), holding between VND 113,600 and 114,500 per kilogram, unchanged from the previous session.
Global coffee exchanges - New York (Arabica) and London (Robusta) - will open later today around 3:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. (Vietnam time).
At the end of last week’s trading, London Robusta futures for November 2025 closed at USD 4,552 per ton, while New York Arabica for December 2025 settled at USD 8,760 per ton.
At the current exchange rate (USD 1 = VND 26,345.05), the average domestic Robusta price (VND 114,300/kg) is approximately VND 5,600/kg (USD 212.5/ton) below the London futures equivalent.
Fresh Robusta cherries are being purchased at VND 20,000 - 24,000/kg, a high level due to selective harvesting and improved bean quality compared to peak harvest times.
As of October 17, ICE-monitored Arabica inventories dropped to 467,110 bags - the lowest in 19 months, while Robusta inventories decreased to 6,176 lots, the lowest in 2.75 months.
The market is currently in a sensitive phase, influenced by adverse weather forecasts and speculative capital flows. With Tropical Storm Fengshen projected to bring heavy rainfall to Vietnam’s Central Highlands, investors are likely to increase hedging activity, pushing Robusta futures toward USD 4,600 - 4,650/ton.
However, if the storm weakens or causes minimal disruption to production areas, technical corrections could bring prices down toward USD 4,500/ton.
Overall, London Robusta futures are expected to edge higher within the USD 4,500 - 4,650/ton range during today’s session, with cautious optimism prevailing amid weather-related uncertainty in Vietnam.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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