VINAGRI News - Despite a decline in export volume and value, Vietnam surpassed Thailand to become the world’s second-largest rice exporter in 2025, driven by sharp contractions in Thai and Pakistani shipments and a reshaping of global rice trade after India lifted export restrictions.
Summary:
> Vietnam became the world’s second-largest rice exporter in 2025, overtaking Thailand
> Rice exports fell to 8.06 million tonnes, but remained historically high
> Global rice prices hit six-year lows after India lifted export restrictions
> Exports to Africa and China surged, offsetting declines in Southeast Asia
> Competition and oversupply are expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026
Vietnam rose to become the world’s second-largest rice exporter in 2025, trailing only India, even as its rice export volume fell year-on-year, according to official data and international forecasts.
Vietnam exported 8.06 million tonnes of rice in 2025, worth USD 4.1 billion, down 10.8% in volume and 27.6% in value compared with 2024 - the record-high year for the country’s rice industry, customs data showed. Although this marked the lowest export volume and value in the past three years, shipments remained significantly higher than levels recorded prior to 2022.
Vietnam’s rise in global rankings came largely as a result of sharp declines in exports from other major suppliers. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that Thailand’s rice exports fell 20.1% in 2025 to 7.9 million tonnes, while Pakistan’s shipments plunged nearly 34% to 4.3 million tonnes.
In contrast, India, the world’s largest rice exporter, increased exports by 23%, adding about 4.1 million tonnes to reach a total of 22 million tonnes, following the full removal of export restrictions.
The global rice market in 2025 was characterized by falling prices and weaker demand. Average Vietnamese rice export prices declined to USD 509 per tonne, down 18.8% from 2024 and 11.5% lower than in 2023. The drop reflected a broader global trend, as increased supply - particularly from India - pushed prices to multi-year lows.
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global rice price index averaged 103.5 points in 2025, the lowest level in six years and down 35.2% from 2024. The market has gradually normalized after disruptions caused by El Niño during 2023 - 2024.
Vietnam’s exports performed strongly in the first eight months of 2025 but fell sharply from September onward after the Philippines temporarily suspended rice imports for four months to support domestic farmers during peak harvest season. As a result, Vietnam’s average monthly rice exports in the final four months of the year dropped 58% compared with January - August levels.
Despite the decline, the Philippines remained Vietnam’s largest rice buyer, accounting for 39.8% of export volume and 38.3% of export value, with shipments totaling 3.2 million tonnes worth USD 1.57 billion. However, exports to the Philippines fell 24% in volume and 39.8% in value year-on-year.
Exports to Indonesia and Malaysia also contracted sharply, while shipments to China and African markets surged. Côte d’Ivoire became Vietnam’s second-largest rice destination with over 1 million tonnes, followed by Ghana (919,214 tonnes) and China (747,327 tonnes). Exports to Senegal and Bangladesh rose dramatically, while shipments to Japan more than doubled, with premium low-emission “green rice” achieving an average price of USD 832 per tonne.
Looking ahead to 2026, global rice prices are expected to remain under pressure amid ample supply and intense competition among major exporters. The USDA forecasts global rice trade to reach a record 62.8 million tonnes in 2026. India’s exports are projected to climb further to 25 million tonnes, while Vietnam’s exports are expected to edge down 2.3% to 7.9 million tonnes, and Thailand’s to fall 5.1% to 7.5 million tonnes.
Philippines officials have indicated plans to import 3.6 million tonnes of rice in 2026, with 75 - 80% sourced from Vietnam, although import volumes will continue to be managed during domestic harvest periods.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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