VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s cashew industry achieved a historic milestone in 2025 with export revenues exceeding $5.4 billion. However, industry leaders warn that geopolitical tensions, rising trade risks and raw material supply challenges could create headwinds in 2026, prompting a strategic shift toward higher value-added processing and improved risk management.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s cashew exports reached a record $5.432 billion in 2025 with nearly 798,000 tons exported.
> U.S. tariffs initially disrupted trade but were eventually reduced to zero after negotiations.
> China became the largest export market, while Middle Eastern demand also grew strongly.
> Geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions pose risks for 2026.
> Vietnam remains heavily dependent on imported raw cashew nuts from Africa and Cambodia.
> The industry plans to focus on value-added processing and improved risk management to sustain growth.
A historic milestone driven by resilience
According to an official report from the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS), the sector reached a “golden milestone” in 2025 as cashew kernel exports climbed to $5.432 billion. The industry processed and exported nearly 798,000 tons of cashew kernels, representing a 4.23% increase in volume and an 18.09% rise in value compared with 2024.
The achievement is particularly remarkable given that the industry typically takes several years to cross each billion-dollar export threshold. This time, however, the breakthrough came rapidly.
Speaking at a recent industry review conference, VINACAS Chairman Pham Van Cong said the record performance reflected the agility and adaptability of Vietnamese cashew enterprises in a turbulent global environment. In 2025, the industry not only faced global economic slowdown but also had to contend with severe tariff barriers from the United States.
The most significant disruption came from U.S. tariff policy. On April 2, 2025, a reciprocal tariff of up to 46% was imposed on Vietnamese agricultural products, causing a severe slowdown in cashew exports to the U.S. Between April and August, monthly shipments to the market fell by 30% - 42%.
However, coordinated efforts by the Vietnamese government, ministries and VINACAS through multiple negotiation rounds helped gradually reduce the tariff rate to 20% in July and eventually to 0% in November 2025. Although total cashew exports to the U.S. for the year still declined by 29.3%, the removal of the tariff barrier ultimately protected Vietnam’s second-largest market, which accounted for 13.88% of the country’s cashew exports.
Market diversification offsets losses
With exports to the U.S. under pressure, Vietnamese cashew companies rapidly pivoted to other markets. China emerged as the largest market, with export value reaching nearly $1 billion ($999 million), representing 19.64% of total market share and a 49.66% increase in value compared with the previous year.
The Middle East also emerged as a key growth region. Among the top 20 export destinations, five are Middle Eastern countries: the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Israel and Jordan. Combined exports to these markets reached nearly 80,000 tons, accounting for about 10% of Vietnam’s total cashew exports.
This rapid market diversification helped the industry offset losses from the U.S. market and ultimately achieve its record export performance.
Geopolitical risks cloud the outlook for 2026
Despite the record achievements, industry leaders remain cautious about the year ahead. At the conference outlining the 2026 strategy, Chairman Pham Van Cong emphasized that geopolitical developments could pose significant risks.
He highlighted the ongoing conflict in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel and Iran as a major concern, noting that disruptions to maritime transport routes and global trade flows could affect the cashew supply chain.
Cong advised exporters to prioritize CIF or CNF contracts rather than the traditional FOB terms. In the current environment of heightened shipping and payment risks, controlling freight and insurance arrangements could help companies reduce potential losses arising from transport disruptions or payment disputes.
Strategic transformation along the value chain
To help businesses respond more quickly to market changes, VINACAS plans to adjust its information strategy. Instead of relying mainly on monthly reports, the association will focus on issuing rapid alerts about critical developments from international organizations or key sourcing regions such as Africa and Cambodia.
Another major challenge facing the industry is its heavy dependence on imported raw cashew nuts. In 2025, Vietnam imported more than 3.12 million tons of raw cashew nuts worth $4.66 billion. Cambodia supplied nearly 1 million tons, while Côte d’Ivoire provided more than 780,000 tons.
However, several African countries are strengthening domestic protection policies. Nations such as Benin and Burkina Faso have introduced early-season export bans or increased export taxes on raw cashew nuts to support local processing industries. These measures could significantly raise input costs for Vietnamese processors.
Cong also expressed concern about the import of low-quality cashew kernels from Africa for reprocessing in Vietnam. Such practices could create unfair competition and potentially damage the reputation of the “Vietnam Cashew” brand, which has been built over more than three decades.
2026 targets and future direction
For 2026, VINACAS has set a target of exporting 800,000 tons of cashew kernels with a total value of around $5 billion. While the export value target is slightly lower than the 2025 record due to expectations of price volatility, export volumes are projected to maintain moderate growth.
To achieve this goal, the industry plans to accelerate its shift toward higher value-added processing instead of focusing primarily on raw kernel exports. VINACAS has strengthened its Equipment and Technology Club to support companies in upgrading machinery and developing products tailored to evolving global consumer demand.
At the same time, building a strong and reputable brokerage network is considered essential for expanding market access. The association is actively bringing together experienced brokers to support market development in the next phase of industry growth.
The record-breaking performance of 2025 demonstrates the resilience of Vietnam’s cashew industry. However, Chairman Pham Van Cong emphasized that 2026 will require greater vigilance and strategic adaptation.
Changes in contract structures, faster information sharing, stronger quality control and deeper processing will be key factors enabling Vietnam’s cashew industry to maintain its leading role in the global cashew market.
With more than 35 years of development, Vietnam’s cashew sector is expected to continue turning challenges into opportunities and sustaining its position as the world’s leading cashew processing and exporting hub.
NPK/ Vinagri News
No comments:
Post a Comment