VINAGRI News - Robusta coffee futures on the London exchange slipped slightly on Tuesday (Nov 4), as investors took profits amid a weaker Brazilian real. However, tight global inventories and concerns over heavy rainfall in Vietnam’s Central Highlands may lend support in upcoming sessions.
Summary:
> London robusta Jan 2026 futures: $4,681/tonne (-0.25%)
> Vietnam domestic robusta: 117,800 - 119,000 VND/kg
> Brazil real weakness triggers increased selling
> ICE inventories at multi-month lows
> Typhoon Kalmaegi may bring heavy rain to Vietnam’s Central Highlands
> Expected price range for Nov 5: $4,650 - $4,720/tonne
Robusta coffee futures for January 2026 delivery on the ICE London exchange fell slightly to $4,681 per tonne, down 0.25% (-$12) from the previous session.
Other contracts also edged lower, with November 2025 futures declining 0.63% (-$30) to $4,653 per tonne.
Converted to Vietnamese currency, the January 2026 robusta futures price equals approximately 123,200 VND per kilogram, based on the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,323 VND.
In the Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices on the morning of November 5 eased by 300 - 500 VND/kg, to 117,800 - 119,000 VND/kg.
At an average of 118,600 VND/kg, local robusta prices remain about 4,600 VND/kg (≈175 USD/tonne) below the London January 2026 futures.
Global coffee prices retreated from a 1.5-week high as investors locked in profits, while the Brazilian real weakened to its lowest level in over a week against the U.S. dollar. The weaker currency encouraged farmers in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter, to increase overseas sales.
Meanwhile, shrinking inventories on the ICE exchange continue to support prices. Certified arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low of 430,270 bags as of November 4, while robusta stocks dropped to 6,053 lots, the lowest in 3.5 months.
According to Vietnam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 5 a.m. on November 5, Typhoon Kalmaegi had moved past northern Palawan (Philippines) into the central East Sea, strengthening into Storm No. 13 with winds of level 13, gusting to level 16. The storm is forecast to approach the Da Nang - Khanh Hoa coastal area by the afternoon of November 6, potentially bringing heavy rainfall to the Central Highlands (Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dak Lak, Lam Dong).
Given these developments, January 2026 robusta futures on the London ICE exchange are expected to trade within a narrow range of $4,650 - $4,720 per tonne on November 5.
Prices could rebound slightly by 0.3 - 0.6% if the market reacts to weather risks in Vietnam and continued inventory declines. However, if the U.S. dollar strengthens further and the Brazilian real weakens, prices may dip toward $4,640 - $4,660 per tonne.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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