VINAGRI News - Vietnamese robusta coffee prices rose slightly on February 2, 2026, by 200 - 300 VND/kg, reaching 100,400 - 101,300 VND/kg, while global futures markets open with caution. Robust global supply from Brazil and Vietnam, along with recovering ICE stocks, continues to weigh on prices. Robusta May 2026 futures on ICE London are expected to trade in a narrow range of 4,000 - 4,060 USD/ton.
Summary:
> Vietnamese robusta prices rise slightly to 100,400 - 101,300 VND/kg on Feb 2.
> ICE London May 2026 robusta futures at 4,037 USD/ton (~104,800 VND/kg).
> Global bearish factors: strong supply from Brazil and Vietnam, recovering ICE stocks.
> Supportive factors: reduced Brazilian exports in December, farmers holding stocks.
> Forecast for May 2026 robusta: 4,000 - 4,060 USD/ton, with sideways to slightly lower trend.
On Monday, February 2, 2026, the main global coffee futures markets, including ICE New York (arabica) and ICE London (robusta), opened for the first trading session of the week around 4:00 PM Vietnam time.
At the close of last week, May 2026 robusta futures on ICE London were at 4,037 USD/ton, while March 2026 arabica futures on ICE New York stood at 332.25 US cents per pound (equivalent to 7,324 USD/ton).
Converted to Vietnamese Dong at the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 25,976.50 VND, robusta May 2026 futures are equivalent to 104,800 VND/kg. In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic robusta prices rose slightly by 200 - 300 VND/kg on the morning of February 2, reaching 100,400 - 101,300 VND/kg. The average domestic price of 101,100 VND/kg remains about 3,700 VND/kg below London May futures, equivalent to roughly 142 USD/ton.
After last Friday’s sharp decline (January 30), the global coffee market opened the week with cautious sentiment. May 2026 robusta futures on ICE London are expected to struggle to recover significantly on February 2, as bearish factors dominate.
The primary negative driver is supply outlook. Consistent rainfall is forecast across key Brazilian coffee-growing regions, particularly Minas Gerais, easing weather-related concerns. Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, has raised its estimate for the 2025 crop, reinforcing expectations of ample supply in the near term.
Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, is also seeing rising supply. Exports in 2025 increased sharply year-on-year, and the 2025 - 2026 crop is forecast to reach the highest level in four years, continuing to pressure international robusta prices.
In addition, ICE-monitored robusta stocks have rebounded noticeably from the December lows, weakening short-term upward momentum. Technical pressure following last week’s steep decline also suggests the market will need time to stabilize.
On the supportive side, Brazilian robusta exports fell sharply in December, and farmers are holding back sales due to unsatisfactory prices. However, these factors are not sufficient to reverse the prevailing market trend.
Given the current context, May 2026 robusta futures on ICE London are forecast to trade within a narrow range of 4,000 - 4,060 USD/ton, with a sideways to slightly downward trend. Market participants will continue to monitor weather developments in Brazil, Vietnam’s export pace, and ICE inventory changes to assess price direction in the coming sessions.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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