VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell further on February 5, tracking sharp losses in global robusta futures amid improving supply prospects, rising ICE inventories, and strong export expectations from Vietnam. While Brazil’s weaker exports provided limited support, the overall market tone remained bearish.
Summary:
> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell VND 800 - 900/kg on February 5
> ICE London robusta futures continued to decline, led by the March and May 2026 contracts
> Domestic robusta prices are trading at a discount of about $38/mt to London May futures
> Improving weather in Brazil and rising Vietnamese supply remain key bearish factors
> ICE coffee inventories are recovering, adding pressure to prices
> Robusta prices on February 5 are expected to trade between $3,650 - 3,720/mt
Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices continued to decline on February 5, falling by VND 800 - 900 per kg to a range of VND 93,900 - 94,900 per kg, reflecting ongoing weakness in global coffee markets.
On Wednesday (February 4), ICE London robusta coffee futures extended their sell-off. The March 2026 contract closed at $3,761 per metric ton, down 1.29% ($49/mt) from the previous session. Other nearby contracts also posted notable losses, with the May 2026 contract falling 0.81% ($30/mt) to $3,689/mt, and the July 2026 contract declining 0.80% ($29/mt) to $3,617/mt.
Converted into Vietnamese dong, the May 2026 robusta futures price stands at approximately VND 95,700 per kg, based on the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 25,964.99.
With an average domestic price of around VND 94,700 per kg, Vietnam’s robusta coffee is currently trading about VND 1,000 per kg below the May 2026 London futures price, equivalent to a discount of roughly $38 per metric ton.
After a steep multi-session decline, global coffee markets entered February 5 with a cautious tone, as robusta prices continue to face pressure from bearish supply-demand fundamentals.
The May 2026 robusta contract on ICE London, which settled at $3,689/mt on February 4, is expected to remain weak in the February 5 session, reflecting increasingly favorable global supply conditions.
The main downside pressure stems from improving weather conditions in Brazil, which have eased drought concerns and boosted expectations for higher production in the upcoming season. At the same time, robusta supplies from Vietnam - the world’s largest robusta producer - are expected to expand further, supported by higher output and strong export volumes in the 2025 - 2026 season.
In addition, ICE-monitored coffee inventories have been recovering, reducing short-term supply risk and adding further downward pressure on prices.
However, some supportive factors remain. Brazil’s coffee exports declined sharply in December, particularly robusta shipments, which has helped limit deeper losses. Moreover, the recent rapid price drop may encourage technical bargain buying, potentially leading to sideways movement or a modest rebound late in the session.
Overall, in the February 5 trading session, May 2026 robusta coffee futures are expected to fluctuate within the range of $3,650 - 3,720 per metric ton, with the downward trend still dominant, although short-term technical corrections may emerge.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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