Vietnam coffee prices plunge as global robusta market remains under strong bearish pressure

VINAGRI News - Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell sharply on February 4, tracking steep losses in global robusta futures as favorable weather in Brazil, ample global supply, and rising inventories continued to weigh heavily on the market outlook.

Summary:

> Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices fell VND 4,200 - 4,600/kg on February 4

> ICE London robusta futures plunged over 5% across major contracts

> Favorable rainfall in Brazil improves crop outlook and pressures prices

> Strong exports from Vietnam and Indonesia reinforce supply-side bearishness

> Short-term technical rebounds possible, but overall trend remains downward

Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices dropped further on February 4, losing VND 4,200 - 4,600 per kilogram to trade in the range of VND 94,800 - 95,800/kg, marking one of the steepest daily declines this year.

On Tuesday (February 3), ICE London robusta coffee futures extended their sharp sell-off.

The March 2026 contract closed at USD 3,810 per tonne, down 5.44% (USD 219/tonne) from the previous session. Other nearby contracts also recorded heavy losses, with May 2026 falling 5.90% (-USD 233) to USD 3,719/tonne and July 2026 dropping 5.76% (-USD 223) to USD 3,646/tonne

At the current exchange rate of USD 1 = VND 25,997.5, the May 2026 robusta contract is equivalent to approximately VND 96,600/kg.

In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, prices on the morning of February 4 mirrored global weakness, sliding another VND 4,200 - 4,600/kg to VND 94,800 - 95,800/kg.

At an average level of VND 95,600/kg, domestic robusta prices are now about VND 1,000/kg lower than the London May 2026 futures, equivalent to a discount of roughly USD 38 per tonne.

Following the sharp plunge on February 3, the robusta market entered the February 4 session with a cautious tone, as fundamental factors continue to clearly favor a bearish outlook.

The main pressure stems from favorable weather conditions in Brazil, particularly in Minas Gerais, the country’s key coffee-growing region. According to Somar Meteorologia, rainfall in the state reached 69.8 mm in the week ending January 30, equivalent to 117% of the historical average. This has eased concerns over drought and significantly improved crop prospects during the critical bean development stage.

Meanwhile, abundant global robusta supply continues to weigh on ICE London prices.

Vietnam’s coffee exports in 2025 rose 17.5% year-on-year to 1.58 million tonnes, while output for the 2025 - 2026 crop is forecast to increase by 6 - 10%, assuming favorable weather persists. In Indonesia, robusta exports from Sumatra surged 52% year-on-year in December.

Adding to the bearish tone, ICE-monitored coffee inventories are rebounding, with robusta stocks rising to their highest level in two months, further weakening near-term price recovery momentum.

On the supportive side, prices may receive short-term technical support after the recent steep decline, as oversold conditions could trigger short-covering by speculative funds. However, this factor is currently insufficient to reverse the broader downward trend.

Based on these factors, May 2026 robusta futures are expected to trade mainly within the range of USD 3,650 - 3,780 per tonne on February 4. While downside risks remain dominant, the pace of decline may slow, with prices potentially moving sideways or posting a mild technical rebound if selling pressure eases.

Analysts note that, in the near term, weather developments in Brazil and export progress from Vietnam will remain the key drivers shaping global coffee price trends.

NPK/ Vinagri News